Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains Moderate at all elevations.  Above freezing temperatures and rain on snow at low elevations will promote wet loose avalanche activity in steep terrain.  Upper elevations will see a few inches of wet snow accumulate.

Avalanche Forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am.  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches will be the primary concern for users today below 4000' in steep terrain.   A low pressure system off the coast of Kodiak Island is expected to deliver cloudy skies and .5-1 inch of water equivalent to our forecast area, with the coastal mountains being favored for precipitation.  Expect rain below 3000' to continue to weaken the upper snowpack and allow for human triggered and natural wet loose avalanches to be possible in terrain steeper than 35°.  If the sun can break through the clouds today expect steep South aspects to become active with wet loose natural avalanche activity that has the potential to step down and produce wet slab avalanches.  Even if the sun does not come out, South aspects will be the most hazardous.

    Above 3000' we expect 3-6 inches of wet snow, that will begin forming a storm slab avalanche problem by the end of the weekend.

    Wet - Moist snow will exist on all aspects below 3000' so the key to managing this problem will be through terrain selection.  Choosing slopes with rolling terrain less than 35° would be more appropriate than large connected terrain where wet loose activity has the potential to gain momentum and entrain significant snow.   It is important to not just think about the piece of terrain you are on but also what is above and below you (Are there steep slopes above that can fail? What does the slope you are on drain into?).   Thinking about the terrain as a whole is a valuable skill that we should all strive to continue to refine.

     

    Large wet loose natural activity on Snowslide Gulch 4/2

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

4/2- Natural wet loose D2-3 avalanches off Snowslide Gulch and South Three Pigs.

4/2- Numerous D1-2 wet loose avalanches

Forecast Discussion:

After nearly 2 weeks of clear weather we are in the midst of pattern change to overcast skies and light precipitation. The tail end of the most recent high pressure brought in a much warmer air mass that drove the freezing line up to 5000'.  Valley locations have remained above freezing on the North side of Thompson Pass for the last 72 hours.  Nicks weather station at 4200' has been hovering at the freezing mark since the beginning of April and  Valdez hasn't had a solid freeze in 12 days.  This warm weather is transitioning our upper snowpack to more springlike conditions.  As the transition occurs and temperatures remain above freezing wet loose and potentially wet slab avalanches are possible.  Snow will begin to accumulate above 3000' today, but is not yet expected to be enough to create a storm slab avalanche problem today.  The freezing line is forecasted to be on a slow decrease over the next 72 hours which will allow the snow line drop.

A natural shed cycle began on 4/2 on steep, rocky south aspects with avalanches up to size 3.  Overcast skies will likely put this process on hold at upper elevations, but steep terrain that is receiving rain on snow below 3000' will remain succeptible to wet loose activity.  

The 3/16 layer of Buried surface hoar has been removed from our avalanche problem list.  Continued observation of this layer within our forecast area has shown the weak layer in question to be highly deformed (rounding), laying flat, mixed with other rounded grains and unreactive in stability tests.  The most recent spike in temperatures has further decreased the likelihood of this layer being reactive in the our forecast area as warm temperatures and moisture continue to promote rounding and mixing of the layer with other rounded grains.  This layer should continue to be monitored for those travelling outside of the forecast area especially in zones to the south and east of Marshall Pass where this layer continues to be reported as preserved.

Additional Information:

Watch out for cornices. A couple of cornice falls have been observed in the Continental region as well as more remote zones outside the forecast area.

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 4/5 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow April Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    .21    38     0 N/O     Thompson Pass    0    0   N/O     0    ~500 Nicks    0    0    131    0 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   18    0 N/O

Regions covered