Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

If enough sun and warmth hit a slope, then a small wet avalanche could release. Pay attention to the weather and retreat to shadier terrain if you and the snowpack are feeling hot and sticky.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Warmer temperatures above 5000 ft, but slightly more cloud coverage by the afternoon, definitely make this one of those "if, then" problems. There are a few things working in your favor. At lower elevations, colder temperatures, low clouds/fog, and long mid-winter mountain shadows should control it. Wind from the east will help keep things cool as well. There may be a crust on the surface in many areas now that will need to break down first before the snow begins to soften. Clouds come in from both the west and south, so the sun will shine a little bit longer only on the northeast end of the zone.

    There is, however, a chance the sky will clear again later in the afternoon. Signs of weakening are snow surfaces becoming sticky, chunks of snow falling from trees, and fresh roller balls releasing on steep slopes. Pay attention to the terrain around you; weakened snow is more likely to release from steep cliffy terrain, and a small avalanche could knock you over onto cliffs and rocks. Give cornices a wider berth if you notice they're drooping. You can recreate earlier in the day or on shady slopes to avoid this problem entirely.

    (12/29/2025)

    Rollerballs and snow shedding from rocks above Reflection Lake, Mt Rainier. This is one of the first signs that surface snow is weakening.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Forecasting this particular wet loose avalanche problem has proved quite tricky. Jumbled temperature inversions, varied cloud coverage, low sun angle, wind from the east, and minimal observations have left forecasters wondering where precisely this problem has occurred...or has yet to. It doesn't have to be tricky for you though. As long as you're mindful of the signs of instability, it will be very easy to avoid the problem. Don't be fooled by how chilly it will be at the trailhead; temperatures will warm as you gain elevation, even with some cloud coverage.

We don't have any snowpack information for upper elevations. If you go poking around on higher, more complex slopes, you could find a lingering isolated wind slab. Mission Ridge reported a small amount of wind transport on Tuesday in cold, unconsolidated snow. The wind was blowing from the east, an atypical wind direction. If you plan to recreate in this kind of terrain, take a good look for wind affected snow on all aspects before diving in. 

Based on the limited snowpack information we have, there are three notable layers. There is a thin crust that formed on Christmas Eve (12/24), a thicker crust that formed on 12/18 and likely extends up to around 6000 ft in some areas, and basal atmospheric-river crusts at the bottom of the snowpack. Mission Ridge Ski Patrol found 1-3mm facets on this layer late last week. The 12/24 crust is buried anywhere from 6-24 inches; the shallower areas are the Wenatchees and Icicle Creek, while deeper areas are the Teanaway, Salmon La Sac, and likely terrain in the northern end of the zone.

All the recent snow has made trail access and snow coverage less challenging. Even still, it’s tough going at lower elevations. Downed trees, open creeks, and grabby bushes make getting to deeper snowpacks a challenge. Plan extra time into your day to navigate these obstacles.

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