Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Mostly sunny skies can turn the snow warm and sticky on steep, sun exposed slopes. Small wet avalanches could result as the day progresses. You can recreate earlier in the day or on shady slopes to avoid this problem entirely if you don't like what you see.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    As warm, dry weather continues to spread east across the forecast region, expect a chance of warming and weakening snow on slopes that get direct sunshine. At lower elevations, colder temperatures, low clouds/fog, and long mid-winter mountain shadows should control this problem. Surface crusts will have to break down first, further reducing the likelihood. Signs of weakening are snow surfaces becoming sticky, chunks of snow falling from trees, and fresh roller balls releasing on steep slopes. Pay attention to the terrain around you; weakened snow is more likely to release from steep cliffy terrain, and a small avalanche could knock you over onto cliffs and rocks.

    (12/27/2025)

    (East North zone) Small loose avalanches releasing from cliffy terrain due to warming.

    Photo: Adam Butterfield

Avalanche Discussion

Tuesday will be another day of high pressure, and may be bordering on "spring-like" in the zone, but not quite full on yet. Expect some high clouds to persist throughout much of the day. Temperatures will feel significantly cooler at the trailhead due to temperature inversions, and this may even cause some valley fog to form in the morning.

A NWAC forecaster traveled in the Nelson Ridge area near Bumping Lake on Saturday and found shallow coverage at lower elevations, but a more meaningful snowpack as they moved into more open slopes at middle elevations. At these elevations, they found roughly three feet of snow with a favorable snowpack structure. There is a thin crust that formed on Christmas Eve (12/24), a thicker crust that formed on 12/18 and likely extends up into upper elevation terrain in some areas, and basal atmospheric-river crusts at the bottom of the snowpack. They did not find much instability in any of these layers.

They noted warming on sunny slopes, so these areas likely have a surface crust now. They also noticed extensive wind affect, but did not find unstable wind slabs. They did not make it to upper elevations, so if you go poking around on higher, more complex slopes, it could be possible to find a lingering isolated wind slab. If you plan to recreate in this kind of terrain, take a good look for wind affected snow before diving in. You can check out the full observation here. 

Other than this one data point and telemetry data, we have no other snowpack information for the zone. Subtle changes in aspect, elevation, or canopy cover can significantly affect overall depth and riding conditions. Snowpack depths likely range widely across the East South. Expect a lean snowpack of roughly 20-30 inches in the eastern mountains and more robust 50-60 inches closer to the Cascade Crest. Where the snowpack is thin, downed trees, open creeks, and grabby bushes make getting to deeper snowpacks a challenge. Plan extra time into your day to navigate these obstacles.

You can help us out! Submit an observation on the avyapp or here.

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