Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We're uncertain how the weather will play out on Tuesday. Hopefully, the scenario is some fresh snow. Winds could form stiffer slabs at upper elevations where you could trigger a small avalanche. Mixed precipitation of sleet, freezing rain, and rain are also possible, so be prepared for icy travel and hazards from low snow cover. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Look for actively blowing snow, deeper drifts, and cornice formations along ridgelines to help identify likely wind slab locations. There isn't much precipitation in the forecast, and wind speeds aren't very impressive. Therefore, we expect wind slabs to be small and isolated. Still, they may form over slick crusts or weak snow surfaces and be triggered easily. So, if you see shooting cracks or identify hollow-sounding pillows of snow, consider steering around steep terrain. Getting knocked over, even by a small avalanche, could be a rough, painful ride over shallowly buried obstacles. 

    (1/20/2023) 

    This is an example of a small wind slab like one you might find at upper elevations on Tuesday.

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

There is certainly a chance for a nasty mixed bag of precipitation types on Tuesday. So you could see a mix of freezing rain, sleet, or rain instead of snow. Some small, wet loose avalanches may also be possible if it's raining on dry snow or the rain breaks down surface crusts. 

We have limited information and quite a lot of uncertainty about the snowpack at upper elevations. Further north in the zone, you may find dry snow above 6500ft. Further south, even at these upper elevations, the snowpack may be wet and punchy or have a breakable melt-freeze crust on the surface. In the Icicle Drainage, observations indicate dry snow without a crust at elevations above 7000ft. In the Icicle River Drainage on Monday, an NWAC forecaster found about 1" of weak faceted snow over freezing rain crust below 4500ft. Above 4500ft, the surface is a melt-freeze crust from the inversion's warm temperatures at upper elevations. 

The last significant snowfall was December 9-10th, with 8-20 inches of snow that unfortunately ended in rain. Since then, inversions have dominated the east slopes, with cold valley temperatures underneath the cloud deck and sunny skies with temperatures nearing 40F at upper elevations. 

You can contribute to the forecast by letting us know what you see. Submit a public observation here. 

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