Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Continue to use normal caution while traveling in avalanche terrain. Look out for small, wet avalanches initiating from steep sunny slopes or cliffs. If traveling at the highest elevations, identify areas of wind-drifted, snow before committing to exposed, consequential terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wet snow avalanches are unlikely on Saturday. They should still be on your radar given continued mild temperatures and recently observed avalanche activity. About 4” of new snow fell on Thursday. The new snow, warming, and a bit of sun produced small natural and human-triggered avalanches the same day. No new wet avalanches were reported on Friday. 

    Keep an eye on steep slopes overhead, especially those seeing strong, direct sunshine. Put some distance between yourself and terrain where you observe rollerballs or small avalanches. While there is a higher probability of seeing a wet avalanche or two on solar aspects, any slope can become unstable if it gets warm enough.

    (12/15/2023)

    A shallow wet loose avalanche on the west side of Table at about 5000'. This avalanche was likely triggered naturally by a combination of new snow and warming on Thursday.

    Photo: Pete Durr - USFS

Avalanche Discussion

If you are traveling up into the alpine, keep an eye out for pockets of wind slab. In most areas there just isn’t much dry snow available for wind transport as a thin surface crust is capping the dry snow below it. But strong winds are forecast for the highest elevations. Any dry snow up there can drift into fresh, unstable slabs. A small wind slab can still carry you over a cliff or into a crevasse. 

Observers around Hwy 542 found a mixed bag with a combination of prior wind transport, prior wet avalanches, and variable snow surfaces. Total snow height varies from pretty much nothing at low elevations to 3-4' at upper elevations. Our current snowpack doesn't really have much worth noting - just alternating layers of crusts and rounded grains that demonstrate the pendulum between dry snow and rain events we've seen since November.

The biggest question mark for the weekend is warming, especially on Sunday with higher freezing levels, more sun, and less wind in the forecast. On one hand, the most recent new snow saw plenty of heat on Thursday and wet avalanche activity likely played itself out. But additional warming could break down the thicker crust below the uppermost layer of new snow. This could destabilize any softer and drier snow in the mid-pack and produce more wet avalanches, especially at higher elevations.

Conditions have improved with better-than-expected riding conditions (but definitely not powder) found at mid and upper elevations on Friday. There are still plenty of open creeks, exposed or partially buried rocks, stumps, and frozen chunks of older avalanche debris. Stay vigilant to early season hazards.

 

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