Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A heavy rain on snow event will create dangerous wet snow avalanche conditions in steep terrain near and below treeline. Large wind slabs will be likely to trigger as you gain elevation into the alpine. Evaluate the snowpack carefully in areas with saturated or drier, wind-blown snow. Recent slab avalanches, wet point releases, rollerballs, pinwheels and shooting cracks are all indicators of hazardous conditions. Conservative terrain choices are the best way to manage both hazards.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Strong southwest winds combined with heavy snowfall will increase the likelihood of encountering large wind slabs above treeline today. Areas near treeline on Mount Shasta may harbor smaller, more stubborn slabs due to potential variability in the snow level.

    The problem will be confined to slopes greater than 35 degrees on the leeward side of ridges, rock outcrops, gullies, and rollovers. Areas directly beneath prominent ridgelines will hold the deepest drifts. Look for clues such as fresh cornices, wind lips and blowing snow to alert you to potential locations. Windward slopes and scoured terrain will offer the safest riding.

    Use small, inconsequential test slopes to assess for shooting cracks and reactivity before committing to avalanche terrain. The most suspect aspects are on south through east through north through west aspects.

    (2/22/2026)

    Skier triggered wind slab on small test slope on a northwest aspect at 7,400 feet 

    Photo: Eric Falconer

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    In total, 1.5+ inches of water are expected to fall in many areas near and below treeline over the course of the most recent storm. This is adding a substantial load to the snowpack. Snow surfaces should remain saturated, weak and cohesionless through the day. Watch for natural signs of instability, such as rollerballs, pinwheels and point releases, which indicate unstable snow conditions. Wet loose avalanches could entrain enough snow to bury a person. Due to the widespread nature of this problem and upper end destructive size, carefully evaluate all avalanche terrain where it exists and consider avoiding it entirely. 

    Very challenging to predict, there remains a lower chance for wet slab to release. Numerous buried weak layers and interfaces have been identified within and at the base of the February snowpack. These could serve as areas for water to pool and decrease the strength of the associated layer. While more prone to fail in the upper foot or so, a wet slab could fail up to a couple feet deep. The consequences of being caught are high given the large, estimated size. 

    (1/1/2026)

    Soggy surfaces and pinwheels, as shown here, are indicators of wet snow instabilities. 

    Photo: Christian Jordan

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