Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Most slopes are generally safe from avalanches, though a few types of features warrant caution.  At lower elevations, you can trigger small dry loose avalanches that gouge into a cohesionless snowpack on wind-protected, northerly slopes.  Manage for sluffs in high-consequence terrain by riding away from the fall line or choosing mellower slope angles.  A very small chance remains for triggering a larger slab avalanche where you encounter stiff, previously drifted snow on leeward features at upper elevations; reduce your risk by steering away from old, hard drifts.  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The prolonged dry spell is causing the snowpack to lose cohesion on wind-protected northerly aspects, allowing sluffs to entrain more volume than you might expect in a few areas.  You are most likely to encounter gouging sluffs in terrain where the snowpack is shallowest and weakest: at low elevations or on slopes that avalanched last month.  Although most dry loose avalanches will be quite small and slow-moving, they can gather size and speed in sustained steep terrain.  Use sluff management techniques in steep terrain above trees, rock bands, and gullies where your skis are sinking deeply into weak, cohesionless snow.  You can avoid the problem on slope angles less than 35 degrees or by moving to terrain with a firmer or crusty snow surface.  

    A gouging facet sluff triggered on a northerly aspect below treeline on Mt. Emmons on Friday.  (2/6/2026) Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Previously drifted hard slabs remain a rare concern where they formed over buried facet layers and where the snowpack has remained mostly dry during the recent warmup.  Most slabs are 1 to 2 feet thick and stand out as harder, smoother, or more rounded-looking snow.   Riding in terrain where the snow is soft and wind-protected, or dappled from wind erosion, offers a safer option.   

    A human triggered hard slab on a small wind-loaded test slope last weekend (1/31). SE aspect at 11,800ft. 

Avalanche Discussion

Observers and snow safety teams yesterday reported quiet avalanche conditions.  The cooler temperatures (compared to previous days), combined with some wind and passing clouds, prevented wet loose instabilities from developing.  Today's temperatures are similar, though we may see less cloud cover and wind. Stay alert for isolated wet loose instabilities during the peak of warming.  Rollerballs or pushy wet snow on steep, sunbaked slopes will signal decreasing stability.  

Despite the recent warm temperatures, northerly aspects have remained completely dry and faceted.  On wind-protected slopes where the snowpack is shallow and cohesionless, you can still trigger gouging facet sluffs on slopes around 40 degrees in steepness (e.g., Happy Chutes on Friday). The thin coverage and unsupportive snowpack in areas closer to town make sluff management more challenging because you also have to avoid hitting rocks and stumps. Yesterday's forecast discussion goes into more detail on managing this problem.   

Triggering a slab avalanche has become increasingly rare due to two weeks of dry, warm weather.  I suspect any lingering concerns are most likely to be found towards the east end of our forecast area, where thin, hard slabs formed over an exceptionally thin, weak snowpack.  Evan demonstrated the problem last weekend in Upper Cement, the part of our forecast area that most closely mirrors ongoing persistent slab issues in the Sawatch Range (Example A, Example B).  

Regions covered