Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The weather looks relatively quiet today, but there are a few problems to consider when making your plan. The main concern is the small chance of triggering a large avalanche above 2,500' on weak snow buried up to 6' deep. This is unlikely in most places in the Turnagain Pass zone, but the avalanches that occurred on the north side of the Girdwood Valley in the last 2 weeks tell us this could still happen in areas where the snowpack is thin. This can be completely avoided by choosing low angle slopes. Natural and human-triggered loose snow avalanches were reported yesterday related to sun and warm temperatures. The same conditions are expected today on south facing slopes. 

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We learned of another fatal avalanche accident yesterday that occurred in Montana. Last week there was an accident involving a large group outside of Lake Tahoe, and two fatal accidents in Utah. Our thoughts are with the victims, their friends and families, and all of the responders involved. Preliminary information may be found at mtavalanche.com, sierraavalanchecenter.org and utahavalanchecenter.org.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: Another human-triggered avalanche was reported yesterday that occurred in Ragged Bowl on Thursday. This one failed on weak snow at the ground in a place with a shallow snowpack. Last Thursday, two other human-triggered avalanches occurred. One of these was also on Raggedtop and one was on Tincan. Everyone involved in these avalanches was able to avoid being caught or escape quickly and we appreciate everyone for sharing. Both natural and  human-triggered loose snow avalanches were reported yesterday related to warming and sun. Several natural wind slab avalanches occurred last week from the outflow wind event. The largest avalanches that have occurred recently happened on 2/14 during a north wind event. One of these was on a southeast slope on Fish's Breath and the other was on northeast facing slope in Ragged Bowl.

    The chance of triggering a large avalanche has become very unlikely in most places within this zone, but the avalanches that occurred on 2/14 (natural) and 2/19 (human-trigger) in Girdwood tell us this problem is still something that could occur especially on the north side of the Girdwood Valley. The person that triggered the avalanche in Ragged Bowl on Thursday described seeing shooting cracks and triggered a whumpf in a windblown area at the saddle of Raggedtop Bowl. Noticing these red flags, along with active wind transport, they decided to choose a slope that looked less wind loaded. They also described choosing the slope they skied based on the lack of terrain traps and a good runout. These are good ways to reduce your chances of a serious outcome if you get surprised. 

    There may be a few slopes in the Turnagain Pass area that could produce an avalanche like the ones in Girdwood. The chances of this happening are higher near areas that have been wind scoured near rocky ridges and outcrops.

    Loose Snow Avalanches: The loose snow avalanches reported yesterday were small, but they can grow larger as they entrain snow on their way down. It's important to escape these as soon as possible to avoid getting carried over a cliff or into trees.

    Cornices tend to fail with warming temperatures, which should be the case today. Avoid spending time underneath cornices and give them space on the ridge as they tend to break back further than expected.

    Wind slab: It has been several days since wind speeds were strong enough in Turnagain Pass to create fresh wind slabs and the old wind slabs out there are getting very old and stubborn. There's always a chance of finding an isolated wind slab in steep terrain.

    (2/19/2026)

    Human-triggered avalanche in Raggedtop Bowl on Thursday. This occurred in an area where the snowpack is thin and the crown is about 6" deep. 

    Photo submitted anonymously

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