Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Up to gale force wind is transporting snow onto a wider swath of terrain and testing the strength of a weak snowpack. Meanwhile, soft surface snow might begin to weaken from strong sun and warming temperatures. Your best bet is to give steep, open slopes some breathing room and to find lower-angle, sheltered terrain to explore instead.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Don't be fooled by sunnier skies. We are in the midst of an active loading period with strong-extreme wind from the west. Poor snowpack structure exists on all aspects at middle and upper elevations, and many slopes are being tested by heavy slabs forming on top. We got a taste of what wind loading did to the weak snowpack shortly after the storm earlier in the week, where wind slab avalanches failed within weak snow in neighboring zones. Some of these avalanches were remotely triggered and propagated widely.

    All steep open terrain is suspect, including moderately treed areas where strong wind has snuck its way in. A change to denser feeling snow underneath your equipment is a good indication that it has been influenced. Avalanches could be triggered from below or next to steep slopes. Long shooting cracks, audible collapses, or natural avalanches are key indicators of dangerous avalanche conditions. Small, steep test slopes or convex features can help gauge the reactivity of the upper snowpack. You can dig small hand pits and pull on blocks of snow to see how easily overlaying slabs break free from weak snow underneath. But given snowpack variability, be cautious about extrapolating your results too broadly. 

    It might be more likely to trigger smaller fresh wind slabs independent of buried weak layers on Friday. However, the potential consequences of being caught and carried are the same. You should be concerned about triggering true wind slab avalanches in the same places where you could trigger a larger persistent slab avalanche. 

    (2/22/2026)

    A small, remotely triggered avalanche in the Buillon Basin area, failing 14-16" deep on buried surface hoar.

    Photo: Sam Clairmont

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    This problem may have already run its course, and the wind will help ward off a cycle yet to occur. But we can't completely rule out this problem with strong sun and warming temperatures on Thursday. If you begin to notice that you're sinking into moistened snow, or you see fresh rollerballs falling down from cliff bands or your own equipment, mark that as a sign that this problem is turning on. Although avalanches will be small, there are plenty of exposed hazards in the terrain right now that you could be carried over, especially on southerly slopes. Lower elevation terrain, by and large, still does not have enough snow for hazard to be elevated. This warming trend could even play a role in the release of a dry wind or persistent slab avalanche; however, these mechanics are not well understood.

    (2/5/2026)

    Wet loose slides on a sun-exposed slope originating in steep, rocky terrain. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

As forecasted, Thursday was a windy day throughout the forecast region. The East South zone doesn't have great wind telemetry, but the nearby White Pass and Mission Ridge weather stations reported sustained wind speeds in the 30s with 50-60mph gusts. Hold onto your hats because there will be another small uptick in wind on Thursday night that should persist through Friday morning. 

Although none of the recent avalanche activity reported to us comes from the East South zone, we know similar snowpack structure exists. This includes surface hoar buried on 2/13, and weak faceted snow buried on 2/7. Weather stations in the zone picked up 1.2 inches of snow water equivalent this week, which could equate to around 1 foot of new snow. Where the wind has transported snow, the depth of overlaying slabs could be double that and growing bigger with continued wind transport. Not having any on the ground info for East South creates more uncertainty around an already tricky problem to forecast for, but this problem is likely to stick around for a while, so settle in to finding fun riding on lower angle slopes. If you plan to travel close to the Cascade Crest, consider checking out the West South forecast.

Southerly flow helped precipitation accumulate in areas further east, bringing accessibility to struggling sno parks back online. That said, the recent snow didn't magically fix our travel woes. The snowpack is still thin, particularly in the trees, at lower elevations, and on southerly slopes. Creeks, holes, and logs make routes convoluted or even impassable. Give yourself time to deal with our interminable "early season" conditions, and know that some hazards may be obscured by new snow.

It takes a village to accurately forecast avalanches and create better forecast products for the community. Please let us know what you're seeing out there.

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