Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A Special Avalanche Bulletin remains in effect due to recent heavy snowfall overloading a weak snowpack. The most dangerous conditions exist on west through north through east aspects, as well as wind-loaded terrain on other aspects. Avalanches may run farther than expected, grow to an unsurvivable size, and could be triggered remotely from below or from adjacent terrain.  You can reduce your risk on suspect aspects by choosing low-angle terrain without steep slopes overhead.  Rising temperatures and sunshine may destabilize the snow on southerly aspects.  This will most often create a loose avalanche problem, but in rare cases, slab avalanches could release.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3.5

    Persistent slab avalanches will break an average of 2 to 4 feet deep (much deeper on drifted terrain) on buried persistent weak layers, and may run naturally today as solar input warms the snow surface on sunny aspects. These slabs have settled and are not often showing obvious warning signs before large and destructive avalanches release. The north half of the compass has the most fragile weak layers buried in the upper and lower snowpack (see videos 1 & 2) and is most likely to produce natural releases, remote triggers from flat terrain, widely propagating, and destructive avalanches.  Recent natural avalanche activity suggests higher elevation southerly terrain contains problematic structures as well.  Manage today's persistent slab problem by avoiding travel on or below terrain steeper than 30 degrees on problematic aspects, including runout zones.

    (2/21/2026) This very large natural avalanche failed Saturday morning.  An avalanche of this size would be difficult to survive.

    Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Rising temperatures and strong solar radiation will warm and wet the snow surface on sunny terrain.  The recent storm snow remains dry on most sunny slopes and will begin wetting as temperatures rise.  There is ample volume for loose avalanche to grow large.  In some rare cases, a loose avalanche could release a slab as it descends.  This scenario will cause the avalanche to grow in size and become more dangerous.  Carefully monitor the snow surface, and if you find moist or wet surfaces, head to lower-angle terrain to reduce your risk.  There is some uncertainty about the impact of today's warming trend, but the volume of available snow is worrisome.

    An example of a Wet Loose avalanche from last weekend on an alpine south slope.  Expect the potential avalanche size to grow larger than the one pictured here. 

Avalanche Discussion

A Special Avalanche Bulletin has been issued for the weekend. Why, you ask?  The combination of hazardous conditions (deadly size with sensitive triggering) on a clear-sky day after a painfully powder-deprived season is a recipe for an accident.  Conditions for skiing, snowboarding, and machining are excellent, but the consequences of triggering an avalanche are deadly serious.  Several tragic accidents have occurred in recent days in California and Utah (1,2).

Weak layers on the north half of the compass have been thoroughly documented this season due to a below-average snowpack.  These weak layers developed thick, well-connected slabs ranging from 2 to 4 feet thick (much deeper on drifted terrain).  Good visibility on Saturday allowed observers to document many large and a few very large avalanches.  More worrisome, a few of these avalanches failed on Saturday (Augusta, Mount Emmons, Gibson Ridge).  Take a sobering look through the media gallery or this avalanche data.  The size of the avalanche problem is deadly and requires conservative terrain selection.  This video from Snodgrass on Friday illustrates the potential for widely propagating avalanches, and this video from Saturday demonstrates that you can remotely trigger an avalanche from below.

One notable change for Sunday will be the rising temperatures and the wetting of snow surfaces on southerly aspects.  Some natural avalanche activity is expected from this initial wetting of the dry snow on sunny terrain.  Loose avalanches are the most probable problem, but slab avalanche activity due to warming can't be ruled out.  You can manage the uncertainty through conservative terrain choices and limiting your exposure to steep slopes.

Conservative decision-making is a must to stay safe this weekend.  You may or may not experience signs of instability before triggering a serious avalanche; don't let a lack of cracking or collapsing convince you otherwise.  Carefully manage overhead hazards, as you can trigger a deadly avalanche from below, and some slides may run much further than you expect.

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