Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

As new snow and east winds impact the area today, the likelihood of natural and human-triggered avalanches up to 1' deep will increase throughout the day. These are most likely along ridgelines at upper elevations. We're also tracking a buried weak layer 2–6 feet deep that could produce very large avalanches in the alpine, though the probability remains low. You can completely avoid the deep slab problem by staying off large, steep slopes and overhead avalanche paths.

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Join us Friday, Feb. 13, for the annual Snowball fundraiser! This event is a collaboration with the Alaska Avalanche School and is always a fun way to support two nonprofit organizations that provide avalanche information and education in our area. Silent auction, beverages, hors d'oeuvres, and music by Hope Social Club! Tickets and event info at alaskaavalanche.org

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The December facets are lingering anywhere from 2' to up to 6' deep in the snowpack. Now that the lower elevation snowpack has a firm ice crust on top, it is very unlikely to trigger an avalanche on this layer. But in the alpine, there is a small chance that this layer could still produce a very large avalanche. With poor visibility expected today, most folks probably won't get into the habitat where this avalanche problem is a concern, but you can always hedge your bets by managing your terrain to reduce your exposure. Avoiding large steep slopes overhead and steering clear of the runout zones of overhead avalanche paths is a good way to avoid this problem and give the snowpack a little more time to bury this layer so deeply that we don't have to worry about it anymore. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: There have not been any recent avalanches reported since the start of the weekend. Last week's warm storm caused a widespread natural avalanche cycle, including some larger avalanches in the alpine. 

    A much-needed refresh of snow is on the way today. Let's hope that we end up on the higher side of the forecasted storm totals, which could bring up to 6" of new snow to Turangain Pass, Summit Lake, and Snug Harbor. In favored areas like Girdwood, Portage, and near Seward, 8 to 12" of new snow are possible today with rain line forecast to stay below 500'. Strong east winds will accompany the new snow, with averages of 30 to 40 mph and gusts of 60+mph throughout the day. 

    As the new snow piles up and east winds redistribute it throughout the alpine, the likelihood of natural or human-triggered avalanches up to 1' deep will increase throughout the day. These are most commonly found along ridgelines and exposed terrain features near treeline and above. Looking for places where snow is being transported by the wind, shooting cracks on steep test slopes, and feeling for hollow pillows of wind-blown snow on leeward slopes are good ways to identify the type of terrain features where wind slabs could be triggered today. 

    Storm slabs are also possible in sheltered areas if the new snow gets to 8 to 10" deep or more. This is most likely near Girdwood, Portage, and Seward, where higher new snow totals are expected today. With the new snow falling onto an icy snow surface below 2500', these storm slabs could be easy to trigger and run a little further than normal if the storm produces near the high end of expected snow totals. Dry loose avalanches (sluffs) are also likely on steep terrain features where the new snow might not bond to the old snow surface very well.  

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