Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could trigger an avalanche in wind-drifted snow on steep north, east, and south-facing slopes. Shooting cracks in the snow under your feet and snow blowing at the ridgelines are signs of unstable snow. Traveling on textured and hard snow surfaces limits your exposure to triggering an avalanche today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    What and where is it:  Old wind slabs formed from 2.4 inches of snow and strong northwest winds. You are most likely to encounter these on steep east-facing and south-facing aspects between 3000-5000 feet in elevation and near terrain features that have provided shelter from strong, shifting winds. 

    Look for new wind slabs forming from around 3 inches of snow forecast to fall throughout the day on southwest and west winds. These could form on north-facing and east-facing terrain above 3000 feet in elevation.

    How can you recognize it: For old slabs, look for smooth, pillowy snow. It will be easiest to identify before the new snow begins to fall. If new snow blankets terrain, dig down to assess the snow structure and interface of the old snow layer to assess sensitivity. 

    Look for falling snow, blowing snow at ridgelines, deep snow drifts, and shooting cracks under your feet for signs that new slabs could be forming. Use a pole to assess size and dig in the snow with your hand or shovel to understand sensitivity.

    How can you manage it: With new snow increasing avalanche hazard throughout the day, pay attention as snow begins to be blown by the wind and accumulates. If you are finding drifts deeper than your boot tops, take time to assess the snow before committing to traveling on that drift, and consider traveling on old hard snow surfaces that avoid deeper drifts of new snow.

Avalanche Discussion

Professional and forecaster observations from yesterday found blowing snow and small, stubborn wind slabs in east-facing and south-facing terrain. While those are trending to be less of a problem, they should not be fully out of mind just yet. 

In low elevation, wind slabs were found to be small and very isolated. The limited distribution of these slabs was part of why the problem was removed from today’s forecast. However, continue to assess the snow in consequential terrain in Crawford’s Notch. 

The driving factor in today’s increasing avalanche hazard is the new snow and slabs that could form from it. Between the Mount Washington Observatory and the National Weather Service, there is good alignment on wind directions as well as snow amounts. The biggest discrepancy is what the wind speeds are today. Winds at the higher end of the forecast may not load terrain at upper elevation and push the bulk of the problem into mid-elevation terrain. On the other hand, wind speeds at the lower end of the forecast could form slabs in both upper and mid-elevation terrain. 

While interesting, for you today, ongoing observations assessing how much snow is blowing and how much snow is accumulating are things to look out for. The deeper the drift the larger a potential avalanche could be, so take time to assess the sensitivity as well as the consequences of a slide.

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts. 

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