Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The upper 8-12" of the snowpack is soft and can move with you on steep slopes. Wet Loose Avalanche danger will increase through the day on Solar aspects due to a lack of a solid freeze below 7,000' and the upper, new snow getting heated by the Sun.  Dry-loose avalanches could pose a problem in confined, steep, exposed, or consequential terrain. Use caution and good travel protocols like 1 at a time on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. 

Winds and up to 6" of new snow Sunday Night and Monday may gust into the upper 30mph range and will likely create natural wind slab avalanches on leeward slopes Monday. 

Today's Advisory is sponsored by Brundage Mountain Resort.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The combination of the Sun and a snowpack that has only seen brief freezing and is blanketed by a crust and new snow gives us a good possibility of wet-loose avalanches on solar aspects through the day.  Partly Sunny skies today are forecasted and may be enough to heat up snow that has not seen much solar gain.  The other major player is the snowpack below 7,000 feet is saturated from rain and warm temps last week that penetrated all the way to the ground: visible below the new snow and crust and was not frozen yesterday at 6700' on a South aspect North of McCall. 

    Recent avalanches, rollerballs on the snow surface, and sinking deep into the snowpack are good indicators that the snow is becoming unstable. Find a cooler aspect to play on.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The possibility of getting the upper 8-12+ inches of new snow of the upper snowpack is good today. Yesterday were were throwing the new snow around with ski turns and it was harmless in the terrain we were in. If you were in exposed, or extreme terrain this may be enough snow moving around to knock you off course and into bad places like rocks and cliffs.

    The higher you get the more snow and the potential for this problem will increase. Use good spacing on steep shady aspects and slough management techniques.

Avalanche Discussion

Our snowpack is shallow in most places and still non-existent on lower solar aspects where rain and above normal temps have saturated the snowpack and have kept early season conditions a player thus far. Cool temps early in October and November created weak snow near the ground that has some strong snow above it. Triggering this weak snow near the ground is very unlikely and is only a possibility in very shallow, steep spots that would likely be rocky and unsupported at the bottom.

We have not had test results or avalanches near the ground since December, yet the poor structure of strong over weak snow is the basic makeup of our snowpack. Our most recent slab avalanche cycle which happened a week and a half ago now on a layer of facets and buried surface hoar from late December has gained a lot of strength and is not producing results in our stability tests. 

Below 7,500' the snowpack is going to take time to refreeze and gain good strength. 

* South Winds Sunday evening through Monday will likely create natural wind slab avalanches on leeward slopes, mainly on Northern aspects.