Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

With another storm building intensity across our region today, expect the avalanche danger to rise throughout the day. Our snowpack has a very poor structure right now and has doubled or even tripled in depth in many places over the last week of storms. This is a recipe for very large, destructive avalanches if you find the right trigger point or set off an avalanche in the new snow that steps down to our early season weak layers. Conditions are spooky out there, and you may not get the advance feedback that we sometimes get from widespread weak layers. Fact of the matter is, our snowpack is weak, but also highly variable and quite deep in a lot of places. So even though it may be difficult to get that immediate feedback, there are definitely some dragons lurking in their lairs out there.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Structurally we have a very weak snowpack in many areas across all elevations. In our travels, we've been continuing to find depth hoar and our January drought layer, and currently they are buried underneath an increasingly large slab of snow from all of our January and early February storms. Additionally, many solar aspects contain a faceted crust from the late January warm up that is now buried under a sizeable slab. Any persistent slab avalanche would be large to very large,  breaking widely across terrain features, and may be 3 to 6 feet deep. These avalanches most likely would not be survivable.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes to slopes over 30 degrees, and give known avalanche paths wide berths as you could potentially remotely trigger an avalanche that breaks well above you. 

    Near and below treeline terrain have a weak and shallow snowpack. Upper elevations have a deeper snowpack with harder slabs that may take finding a likely trigger point where the weak layers are easier to impact on the margins of the slab.  With so much snow, identifying these areas will be nearly impossible. 

    Photo: Andy Bond

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    More heavy snowfall is on the way today and thus we can expect this avalanche problem to develop over the course of the day. Up to moderate Southeast and East winds are forecasted for the next 24 hours, so some of these avalanches may occur in wind-drifted snow. With the winds in the mix, these slabs could be a couple of feet deep by the end of the day and capable of propagating widely across slopes. Pay close attention to signs of instability over the course of today such as shooting cracks and collapses, as these likely indicate instabilities that are developing today in combination with the storm. Storm slab avalanches will be dangerous on their own, but can also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. Below treeline, avalanches in the new snow will mostly occur in the form of dry loose sluffs, but be mindful of areas that are more open and exposed to wind as these areas could develop a more reactive slab today.

Avalanche Discussion

We've had an impressive February so far, to say the least, and the gauntlet of storms isn't done yet. Since the tap turned on last weekend, our mountains have seen about 55 inches of snow and 4.75" of SWE. The next 24 hours could add another 8-12 inches and nearly 1" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Winds will pick up over the course of the day and shift to the East during this final bout of moisture. Once the storm runs its course, we're expecting a longer break in the weather with sunny skies and ambient temperatures forecasted for all of next week.

Over the last few days, we have observed some large to very large avalanches that have run well into the flats below.  One of them was the Peace Sign, which ran and put a large amount of debris across the "old" Williams Lake Trail that people frequent. This west-facing slope gets cross-loaded and most likely started higher up with a slab on the surface stepping down into deeper weak layers.  This path had already ran this year during the mid-January storms, so we may continue to see avalanche paths that already ran as repeat offenders. Another notable slide was a large D2 avalanche on a north aspect below treeline early in the morning.  We had been at the top of the start zone the day before, where we had a weak snowpack and shallow overall snowpack, but no results in extended column tests. This was a factor of not having enough of a slab for propagation. Some of our recent storms came in with a lot of wind unlike the Feb. 2-3 storm, so slab formation has been more widespread even in open and exposed areas below treeline. We have the perfect setup for avalanches to start within the storm snow and step down into deeper weak layers. With more snowfall and wind strong enough to transport it today, we wouldn't be surprised if we see more avalanches fail at or near the gound by tomorrow.

There are several prominent weak layers in our snowpack, depending on the elevation and aspect.  Most of the weak layers are found deeper down the snowpack and formed during the dry periods earlier in the season. Depth hoar and the early January drought facet layer continue to remain reactive in many of our pits. On solar aspects you may also find faceted crusts that formed during the late January warming event, and we were even finding a buried near surface facet layer from in between the Feb. 2-3 storm and the Feb. 7 storm. Since February 2nd we've doubled our snowpack and weak layers are struggling to adjust to this added weight.  It's complex and challenging conditions out there. You can always avoid these avalanche problems by staying off and beneath terrain over 30 degrees. Wind-sheltered low-angle terrain has great skiing and riding conditions right now. 

Near and below treeline continue to exhibit the shallowest and weakest snowpack ahead of today's storm, even though on average these areas are showing less of a reactive slab at the current moment. Expect that to change over the course of the day as the storm builds intensity. It's definitely possible to trigger a destructive avalanche in these zones if you find the right conditions. Above treeline, the snowpack is extremely variable but really deep now in certain spots. We're still finding incredibly weak snow at the base of all that, which means we have a recipe for triggering a very large persistent slab avalanche up there, just like the one we saw run at the Peace Sign. It's going to take hitting a shallow spot on the margins of the slab or triggering a smaller avalanche in the newer snow that steps down to those deeper weak layers, but it's going to become easier and easier to do that today with another storm on the way.

 

 

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