Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Conditions remain similar to Friday but with more cloud cover. Moderate easterly winds will continue to redistribute any remaining light snow. Search for active wind drifting and feel for thicker deposits beneath you, and if you find any drifts, avoid them on steep slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    On Friday we saw wind redistributing snow at mid and upper elevations, and it was possible you could trigger a wind slab avalanche. This trend continues into Saturday, with moderate SE winds.

    New slabs could form, or old ones still could react to a human trigger. Search out actively blowing snow, new cornices, textured surfaces, or fresh drifts to help identify wind-loaded features to avoid. These are most likely to form on steep rollovers, in gullies, or around rocky outcroppings. Easterly winds may mean drifts could form in areas you don't normally expect them to, or further down on a slope.

    Drifts will probably be less than a foot deep and you can use hand pits or small test slopes to check how reactive these slabs are. For Saturday, avoid wind-loaded slopes greater than 35°, especially at upper elevations or where you identify new drifts.

    (2/16/2024)

    Active wind drifting was visible at mid and upper elevations on Thursday in the Highway 2 corridor. This is a strong indicator to avoid nearby slopes beneath cornices or where the snow deposits. 

    Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

Some areas of the zone may receive more wind transport than others, so avalanche conditions may vary depending on where you are in the zone. Wind-sheltered north-facing slopes may produce shallow dry loose avalanches. After Friday's sun we suspect a new crust formed on the surface of east, south and west aspects. There may have been a few shallow wet loose avalanches that came down, so you might encounter some debris during your outing. 

On Thursday I went for a ski tour in the Skykomish area off Highway 2. There was around a foot of snow over the Early February Crust (EFC) above 4500ft. The new snow layer was notably crustier and shallower on south-facing slopes. Northerly aspects had a thicker layer that was predominantly powder.  About 3000ft is where snow began stacking up over the EFC, but only in open areas. Thickly treed areas had minimal new snow until at least 4500ft.

I found a few subtle weak layers midway through the new snow layers where I traveled, but none that I suspected would be a problem right now.  The snow was well bonded to the EFC. Currently our concerns are limited to layers above the EFC. Neighboring zones have seen a few avalanches within the newer snow layer and on the EFC, so failures in those areas probably aren't out of the question.

If you make it into the backcountry on this holiday weekend, prepare for shallow, variable snow cover, with crusts and an abundance of holes in the snow that could catch you off guard. Send us an observation so you can help contribute to better forecasts in the zone!

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