Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

An Avalanche Warning is in effect through Sunday, as continued heavy snowfall and increasing west winds today will create very dangerous avalanche conditions. Storm slab avalanches will be dangerous on their own, and have potential to step down into deeper weak layers. Rapid loading, will stress and overwhelm faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack.  Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely, and may run long distances into the flats below. Travel in and around avalanche terrain is not recommended today. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Heavy snowfall and wind will continue to thicken slabs and add weight to weak and faceted snowpack. This is the biggest storm of the season, and faceted weak layers and depth hoar will struggle to handle this rapid loading. Avalanches can be remotely triggered and break well above you and able to run long distances well into the flats.  Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes to slopes over 30 degrees. 

    Near and below treeline, the snowpack is shallower and January slabs are not as thick or hard. In this terrain, you're likely to intially get an avalanche to fail on of the two widespread weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. These avalanches would be large and take with it most of the seasons snowpack. 

    Above treeline, strong wind events earlier this season have capped these weak layers with thicker and harder slabs.  These upper elevation slopes will be able to hold more weight but if avalanches are triggered, they could be very large breaking widely across slopes and able to run long distances to the valley bottoms. 

    Weak layers deeper down in the snowpack continue to remain reactive and will face a significant test from 2-plus feet of snow and over 2" of SWE. 

    (1/27/2024) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    14 to 20 inches of snow has already fallen with an additional 6 to 10 inches forecasted for today.  West winds have been light so far but will be increasing today.  Storm snow may not bond well to the old existing surfaces of near-surface facets, crusts, and slick hard slabs at upper elevations. In more wind-sheltered steep areas you may get the new snow to sluff that could pile up quickly and be enough to bury you if it pushes you into a terrain trap.   

    Pay attention to signs of instability like shooting cracks off your boards.   Storm slab avalanches will be dangerous on their own, but can also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

     

Avalanche Discussion

A significant storm continues to impact northern NM.  Snow totals over the last 28 hours are 14 - 20 inches with about 1.6" of snow water equivalent (SWE)  An additional 6 - 10 inches of snow is forecasted today along with increasing W/NW winds.  New snow and transportable wind speeds will continue to load slopes.  Natural avalanches may occur spontaneously, and human triggered avalanches are very likely. Reports early this morning are of some natural avalanche activity overnight and we should continue to see natural avalanche activity throughout the day.  Today will be a day to avoid being in and around avalanche terrain and let mother nature run it's course.          

Regions covered