Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will be lowest in the morning after a mostly clear night and solid freeze. As the daytime warms and winds pick up at upper elevations, chances of triggering a slide will increase later. Plan to move away from steep slopes that become unsupportable and wet, and if you see active wind drifting near ridgelines.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    In the morning, the snow surface will have a thin crust and avalanche danger will be lower. The likelihood of wet avalanches will increase with direct sun and warming temperatures in the afternoon. Most avalanches would be small, but they could run naturally off steep rocks and cliffs, so be aware of the terrain above you. You could also trigger these slow-moving but heavy avalanches in steep terrain. If you begin to sink deeply into wet, sloppy snow or see active rollerballs, consider moving to lower-angle slopes or sticking to more shaded aspects. 

    (2/22/2024)

    A large natural wet avalanche occurred on February 22nd on Big Kangaroo in the East North zone.

    Photo: Will Govus

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Winds are expected to increase in the afternoon. With this, snow may begin drifting more readily at upper elevations. Shallow slabs may become possible to trigger on a variety of slopes, but may be most prominent just below ridgelines and cornices. The shallow slabs themselves may not present a major concern depending on the consequences of the terrain you are in,  but a small slab has the potential to step down and become wider than expected. 

    Use visual clues such as drifts around rocks or vegetation and textured surfaces to help you identify likely spots for wind slabs. Consider typically wind loaded terrain features, such as the leeward sides of ridgelines, alpine couloirs, gully features, and cross-loaded depressions. Dial it back if you notice shooting cracks, whumphs, or hollow-sounding snow. 

    (2/18/2024)

    Triggering a wind slab in the wrong spot could result in a much larger and wider avalanche if it breaks on old snow above the Early February Crust. 

    W aspect, 6200 ft in the Teanaway.

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

Friday should be a beautiful day in the mountains. Temperatures will rise a notch higher than they did on Thursday, and we don't expect much afternoon cloud buildup besides some high clouds that stream into the northern part of the zone later. Winds will pick up notably by afternoon for higher elevations. This brings some overlapping avalanche concerns with potential for both wet and dry avalanche problems. Although chances have declined to trigger a slide on buried faceted layers above the Early February Crust, it's still a prominent concern for upper elevation, wind loaded terrain. In some areas, the bond with the stout Early February Crust (EFC) is favorable. In others, like the Wenatchee Mountains, it is weaker, with well-developed, faceted snow above the crust. Make observations as you travel, paying close attention to surface conditions. Stiff wind-textured surfaces can point you to potential wind slab locations, and wet snow surfaces indicate wet loose avalanches are possible. You can also use quick hand pits to feel for stiff over soft snow and observe the bond with underlying crusts. When in doubt, reduce your uncertainty by choosing more supported and simpler terrain.

Since February 15th, 13 unintentionally human-triggered avalanches have failed on or just above the EFC throughout the Washington Cascades. Most of these avalanches have been between 5000ft and 8000ft and cover all aspects. It has been a number of days since the last reported avalanche. Unfortunately, these problems can be tricky and linger in certain sub-ranges like the Wenatchee Mountains or near specific terrain features like steep, rocky slopes with a shallower snowpack. 

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