Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today, it is possible for a skier or rider to trigger a slab avalanche above treeline.  These avalanches are most likely to occur in steep, north facing, wind-loaded areas at the top of avalanche paths and in cross-loaded zones.   Avoid these areas, as the trigger points for these avalanches are hard to predict, and the resulting avalanche could be large in size.  Avalanches are unlikely near and below treeline.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The additional snow of last week and the warming trend of this week have not been enough to erase the weak layers and basal facets in or near the bottom of the snowpack.  This is the layer that some of the larger slides released on in the avalanche cycle of more than a week ago.  In some locations, such as catchment zones and areas minimally disturbed by wind, this problem could be categorized as a deep persistent slab.  In other locations, such as wind-effected chutes and gullies, this layer is buried a mere 50 cm or less in the snowpack and could be triggered by a single rider or skier.  Although unlikely to be triggered, these avalanches could be large and easily bury a skier or rider.  Work around the top of avalanche paths guarded by large deposition zones and loaded starting zones, especially those on north facing slopes.  These loaded starting zones and their margins, where the snowpack is thinner, are the most likely spots to trigger a large and dangerous avalanche.  

Avalanche Discussion

Stability tests and observations show that the snowpack has become increasingly stable and that, overall, the avalanche hazard has decreased.  However, we are not yet at low danger levels in all aspects and elevations.   A persistent slab avalanche could still be triggered on slopes where both basal facets and weak layers remain a problem.  On Saturday, a party on a north facing slope of north core ridge got an ECTPV result.  Other observations and tests have resulted in numerous CTNs and ECTXs.  Deep tap tests have resulted in fracture planes, but ones that typically show high strength and are resistant planar.   It is worth noting that stability tests are less reliable with this type of avalanche problem.  This problem might be dormant, but rising temperatures, additional loading, and/or the weight of a skier or rider could resurrect it.  This remains a low probability but high consequence scenario.

In a few sampled locations, the temperature profile and crystal type, (rounding facets and rounds), suggest that this problem is starting to heal.  However, it may take a couple more weeks of warmer weather and possibly more snow before it completely abates.

A stubborn wind slab may exist in some isolated pockets.  Conditions were blustery yesterday, and wind speeds are expected to increase this afternoon.  There is very little snow available for transportation, and that circumstance is helping to mitigate what otherwise might be an avalanche problem.

Conditions on the Peaks are highly variable, and numerous aspects and elevations have been affected by both sun and wind, including typically protected north facing slopes. Some south and west facing slopes are going through melt-freeze cycles, and as this warm weather trend continues, some near treeline slopes may start to corn up in the afternoon.  Much of the above treeline zone has been impacted by high winds and can boast a seriously slippery or grabby wind crust. The growing distribution of wind and sun crusts may be the future weak layers in the snowpack.

It has been over a week since the last snowfall, which resulted in our first and only avalanche cycle of the season. To view some of the aftermath and learn more about the size and type of these avalanches, click here. 

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