Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

We have issued a Backcountry Avalanche Warning through the National Weather Service. An intense storm is bringing heavy precipitation with very strong winds, making very large natural avalanches very likely. This new snow is overloading a snowpack with multiple weak layers that have the potential to make even bigger avalanches. These may run long distances into flat, low-elevation terrain below steeper slopes. Avalanche conditions are very dangerous, and traveling in and below avalanche terrain is not recommended.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Avalanche Closure Notification for Sunday January 26th, 2025: There will be intermittent traffic delays Sunday January 26th, 2025 on the Seward Highway for Avalanche Hazard Reduction work for the following areas:

From milepost 95-100 on the Seward Highway, Between Girdwood and Anchorage in Bird Flats. Motorists should expect delays of up to 45 minutes between 09:00 AM and 12:00 PM.

 From mileposts 38 to 37 on the Seward Highway, at the Seward Highway / Sterling Highway Wye. Motorists should expect delays of 45-60 minutes between 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM.

Updates will be posted on the 511 system. http://511.alaska.gov

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    We're in the midst of an impressive storm system, which is expected to continue into the night before moving out tomorrow morning. The rain line ended up staying well below what all of the models were predicting, and we've seen significant accumulation at elevations as low as 1000-1500' in the Summit Lake area. Here's what we've recorded since the snow started falling mid day Friday:

    • Girdwood: 4.7" snow water equivalent (SWE)/3-4' snow
    • Turnagain Pass: 1.7" SWE/12-18" snow
    • Summit Lake: 1.5" SWE/12-18" snow
    • Seward/Lost Lake: 2.0" SWE/18-24" snow

    This snow has been accompanied by very strong southeasterly winds, which have averaged 20 to 45 mph over the past 24 hours, gusting over 80 mph at times. Needless to say, avalanche danger is through the roof right now. Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions through the day, with very large natural avalanches very likely as the storm continues. These have the potential to run long distances into low-elevation runout zones. If you are considering getting out to witness the carnage, be sure to give steep terrain a very wide berth and avoid traveling on or below avalanche terrain.

    (1/26/2025)

    Predicted snowfall totals from Sunday morning through Monday morning. Graphic courtesy of NWS Anchorage.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3.5

    All of this new and windblown snow is adding an incredible amount of stress to a snowpack with multiple weak layers. While there is always some uncertainty with these persistent weak layers, this is the kind of situation where we would expect to see avalanches happen. These avalanches will be much deeper, wider, and run longer than the storm snow would on its own. If the storm snow avalanche problems mentioned in Problem 1 above weren't enough reason to avoid avalanche terrain today, this deep slab problem will hopefully be convincing enough. This storm will be a great test of these weak layers, and hopefully will help us build some confidence once the snowpack has some time to settle after the weather moves out.

Regions covered