Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Slab avalanche issues persist when you encounter a foot or more snowfall from last week, particularly where it accumulated above a faceted crust.  This skier-triggered avalanche on Mount Emmons illustrates the problem.  You can find less risky terrain options at lower elevations where slabs are uncommon and by avoiding drifted terrain features.  A small chance exists for you to trigger an avalanche on weak layers deep in the snowpack on high elevation northerly slopes that have variable or shallow snowpack depths.  Warming weather and sunshine make loose avalanches possible on sunbaked slopes.  Roller balls and pinwheels can help indicate a developing loose snow problem. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Windblown snow this week has formed relatively shallow soft slabs on terrain features favored by westerly winds.  These slabs have bonded well except where they formed over a thin layer of facets, typically above a crust.  This layer is hit-or-miss in distribution, but we have found it on various aspects.  Carefully assess slab size and terrain consequences before riding in steep, leeward terrain. Expect spatial variability in how slabs bond; use small steep slopes to gather stability feedback.  Cracking or collapsing are obvious signs of unstable snow.  Slabs are rare at lower elevations.     

    There's a small chance you can still trigger a deep, persistent slab on high, northerly aspects where the snowpack remains winter-like. Terrain where the snowpack is unusually shallow due to wind effects or previous avalanche activity is most concerning.  Choose deeper, more uniform snowpacks over thin, rocky areas to reduce your risk.   

    Yesterday, this avalanche was triggered in Climax Chutes on Mount Emmons. The thin layer of facets resting above the crusty bed surface remains sensitive to a person's weight.

    (4/5/2025) Photo: Zach Guy

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    After a week of cool and snowy weather, the sun will start to wet the recent storm snow.  Expect this problem to typically cover the southern portion of the compass but possibly extend into some east and west aspects.  Less recent snowfall in the Southeast Mountains creates a smaller expected avalanche size.  Slopes with long relief could reach a large size (D2), but the typical size is expected to remain small.  Look for roller balls and pinwheels to help indicate a developing problem.  If you find wetter-than-expected conditions, move to a cooler aspect or lower-angled terrain. 

    Pinwheels are clear evidence of Wet Loose avalanche conditions. 

    (3/26/2025) Photo: Zach Guy

Avalanche Discussion

Evidence filters in each day that last week's storm snow is poorly bonded on some slopes.  A thin layer of facets above the meltdown crust has been the culprit in multiple human-triggered avalanches over the past few days, with the most recent failing on Climax Chutes on Mount Emmons.  These facets formed from melt-layer recrystallization - a process that requires a specific set of ingredients that weren't widespread at the start of this week's snowfall.  The distribution is spotty around the landscape but has been found on various aspects (observations documenting the weak layer Baxter Basin, Elkton).  This human-triggered avalanche near Marble found the problem on a westerly aspect.  Slab formation above this layer is more common in the Northwest Mountains due to more snowfall last week, up to 2" Snow Water Equivalent accumulated (2 feet of settled snow).  In the Southeast Mountains. storm totals topped out around a foot, so slab formation is more likely to follow wind-loading patterns, but a slab avalanche can't be ruled out in sheltered areas at upper elevations (the Climax Chutes avalanche suggests there could be a few slopes in the Southeast Mountains, near the border of the forecast zones, that have just enough snow in mid-elevation sheltered areas to produce an avalanche on the faceted crust layer).  Use caution when you encounter slab formation above the meltdown crust, and carefully assess how the slab is bonding before you ride in steep terrain.

High northerlies are the only slopes that didn't see extensive meltwater into the snowpack last week. On these coldest aspects, a more winter-like snowpack structure exists. This requires consideration for weak layers near the ground that have plagued us this winter, especially on terrain with unusually shallow snow depths. The most recent human-triggered examples of the problem include a snowmobile-triggered slide on Axtell and a skier-triggered slide on Gothic.   In the San Juans on Wednesday, a skier was surprised when they triggered a shallow wind slab that stepped down and produced a very large avalanche. 

Temperatures increase, and cloud cover decreases on Sunday.  Expect a potential uptick in loose avalanche activity on sunbaked slopes.  The Northwest Mountains can produce larger loose avalanches, as more snow accumulated last week.  Loose avalanche activity is expected to involve just last week's snow as crusts below likely stay intact until temperatures climb well above normal in the coming days.

Events: CBAC's Party for the People is at the Talk of the Town next Thursday.  Come celebrate the end of the season with us!  (Don't worry, we'll be forecasting for at least a few more weeks.)

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