Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The snowpack offers generally good stability and Low danger this morning before the threat of shallow wet avalanches increases the danger to Moderate later today.  The pattern of avalanche activity over the past few days showcases the types of avalanches you're most likely to encounter.   Rollerballs and pinwheels indicate you've outstayed your welcome in consequential, sunbaked terrain.  Low likelihood slab concerns linger on higher, colder aspects, evidenced by recent slab avalanches on Teocalli and Schuylkill Ridge.   

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Manage for shallow wet avalanches once the upper few inches of snow get wet.  Today's wet loose avalanches should entrain just last week's new snow, and most are relatively small in size.  Long, steep terrain could grow larger or a few slopes could propagate wider as thin wet slabs.  Rollerballs, pinwheels, and ankle-deep wet snow indicate decreasing stability.  Move to less consequential terrain as the problem develops.  You can avoid wet avalanches by traveling early while snow surfaces are frozen or moving to colder aspects as the day warms up.   

    These recent wet loose avalanches on Gothic exemplify the average size you can expect to encounter later today. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2.5

    New and windblown snow last week formed slabs about 1 to 2 feet thick, especially on terrain features favored by westerly winds.  These slabs have bonded well in most terrain, with a few potential exceptions where they formed over a faceted crust.  This buried weak layer is variable across the landscape.  Carefully assess slab size, bonding, and terrain consequences before riding on suspect terrain highlighted by the rose.   Problematic slabs are rare below treeline and have improved on sunnier aspects from ongoing warming.     

    There's a rare chance you can still trigger a deep persistent slab on high, northerly aspects where the snowpack remains winter-like. Terrain where the snowpack is unusually shallow due to wind effects or previous avalanche activity is most concerning.  Choose deeper, more uniform snowpacks over thin, rocky areas to reduce your risk.   

    This persistent slab was triggered by a shallow wet loose avalanche on Teocalli Mountain (4/7/2025).  

Avalanche Discussion

The gradual warming trend continues.  Last night's weaker refreeze won't hold up quite as long as the last few days in wind-protected terrain. Gusty winds will slow or prevent the warming process on higher, wind-exposed slopes.  Wet loose avalanches involving last week's fresh snow remain the most active problem on the menu today.  We've documented numerous small (D1 to D1.5) wet loose avalanches on east, south, and west aspects, with the problem recently expanding into more northerly aspects at mid to lower elevations. A few of the longest, steepest terrain features in the Northwest Mountains could entrain enough snow to grow to D2 in size (ex. Cinnamon).  But you'll be off of high-consequence terrain and en route to Hartman's noon opening by the time it gets too wet, right?  

Although the odds of triggering a persistent slab avalanche have decreased under our current dry pattern, the threat hasn't gone entirely.  The most recent examples on Monday were triggered by shallow wet loose avalanches on Teocalli and Schuylkill Ridge: slabs breaking about a foot thick on our April 1st faceted crust.  This week, we've also found propagating test results on the same layer up to 2 feet deep on Cinnamon and Teocalli.  This problem still warrants snowpack evaluation, especially if you are riding in larger or more consequential terrain.  There's a chance these same structures could produce thin wet slabs as meltwater reaches the buried crust, most likely later this week as temperatures soar.  Yesterday's increased winds spurred wind transport in a few alpine areas, and you might encounter thin wind slabs lurking below leeward features today.  

Events: CBAC's Party for the People is at the Talk of the Town next Thursday.  Come celebrate the end of the season with us!  (Don't worry, we'll be forecasting for at least a few more weeks.)

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