Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Very strong winds and recent snow have created wind slabs near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Watch for stiffening snow underfoot, obvious pillow like features and shooting cracks off your boards, avoiding steep slopes where you find 8 or more inches of wind drifted snow. Stiffer, more cohesive slabs rest on top of facets and depth hoar that are 1 to 4 feet below the surface. It's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche, with the most dangerous slopes found at upper elevations on northerly and some east aspects. These avalanches would be large, taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  Sticking to wind sheltered slopes less than 35 degrees, without steep slopes above you, is a great way to manage the avalanche hazard today.  

Snow ramps up in the overnight hours, and expect avalanche danger to quickly rise by early Saturday morning as snow totals add up. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Weak facets and depth hoar that formed during the long dry period from November through January are capped beneath cohesive slabs from last Tuesday's storm and the strong winds yesterday. These widespread weak layers are 1 to 3 feet below the surface and remain easy to impact in travels. The most dangerous slopes face north and some east, mainly at upper elevations but also extend to below treeline in more open northerly facing terrain where winds have helped build cohesive slabs. Expect that any slope that looks enticing enough to ride has this strong over weak snowpack structure. 

    Obvious signs of instability, like cracking and collapsing, may not be present and give you a false sense of security. It's still possible to trigger an avalanche remotely from the flats below or on an adjacent slope. Any avalanche triggered has the potential to take with it most of the season's snowpack and be large enough to injure or bury you.

    Depth hoar, facets and faceted crusts remain weak and will continue to be stressed by loading from yesterdays strong winds. 

    (3/5/2025) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Very strong SW winds have drifted and pressed Tuesday's snow into stiffer cohesive slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines, and cross-loaded terrain features mainly at upper elevations.  These wind slabs could be 1 to 2 feet thick and will feel stiff underfoot. These wind slabs may look smooth, rounded and pillow like. Shooting cracks off your boards are indications you've found instability on the snow surface. It's possible that a smaller wind slab avalanche on the surface could step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger, more destructive avalanche. 

    SW winds were cranking on Thursday, with gusts hitting 78 mph across the higher terrain. These winds have drifted and pressed Tuesdays 4 to 7 inches of snow into firmer wind slabs.

Avalanche Discussion

Tuesday's 4 to 7 inches of snow brought a much-needed refresh for us and gave us a reminder that winter wasn't done with us just yet. After a beautiful day on Wednesday, the winds picked up on Thursday, with gusts approaching 80 mph over the higher peaks out of the southwest.  Winds are expected to decrease today as we wait for our next storm to move into our area later this afternoon/evening. The National Weather Service has placed us under a Winter Storm Warning for this evening into Saturday morning, where upwards of a foot of snow is forecasted. The avalanche danger today is Moderate but is expected to rise overnight to Considerable with heavy snowfall expected. 

Recent strong winds have pressed and drifted snow into firmer hard slabs at upper elevations. We weren't finding these wind slabs to be reactive to skis on Wednesday, with avalanche control teams having better luck with explosives. We did notice a small natural wind slab avalanche below a small cornice in Long Canyon on an east aspect on Wednesday. If you do find hard slabs in travels, be aware that they can oftentimes break in unpredictable ways, oftentimes well above you.  

It's been a weird winter that can easily be described by low snowfall and prolonged dry periods that brought record-breaking warm temperatures to begin and end February. Most southern aspects are melted back to bare ground, and there is not much snow below 11,000'.  Solar aspects that do have snow currently have buried faceted crusts from these warm periods. There is an obvious dust layer in our snowpack from the strong winds on March 3rd before this most recent bit of snow. If you've been reading some of the forecasts during the season, it should be no surprise that we have a shallow and weak faceted/depth hoar snowpack. After two big storms at the end of October and beginning of November, we waited a long time for the next significant storm to arrive at the end of January. 

   

Our two big avalanche cycles this season have come after the end of January storm and Valentine's Day storm. With another significant storm heading our way tonight, expect avalanche conditions to rise again where we could see natural avalanches in the overnight hours as we are forecasted to see heavy snow with intense 1 to 2 inch an hour snowfall rates. Shallow buried weak layers in our shallow snowpack for this time of year will struggle to handle this significant loading.  

March is oftentimes one of our snowiest months, and it looks like we'll continue to see storms heading our way into next week, bringing some much-needed moisture for our mountains.  I often hear from people that they wait until the spring to ski as avalanche conditions ease. Even though we've had spring-like weather, our snowpack and especially our weak layers are in early season form right now. I'm sure many of you, like myself, haven't had many powder turns this year, and it'll be tempting to want to get out and chase some soft turns with a promising-looking storm heading our way. Dial back expectations, as we expect to see avalanche ramp up quickly with this incoming storm.  

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