Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  A weak snow layer exists in some locations beneath the most recent round of snowfall.  There is also the potential to find pockets of sensitive wind slabs at upper elevations and wet loose avalanches on solar aspects today.  The most likely avalanche problem to encounter will depend on the location you travel in. Human triggered avalanches remain possible 1- 2 feet in depth. See full forecast for more info.

Avalanche Forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8am.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    For the last 10 days, we have been tracking a layer of buried surface hoar that is covered by 4 inches to 2+ feet of settled storm snow throughout our forecast zone and into adjacent areas.  The overlying slab thickness is dependent on proximity to the coast. Upper elevations near the coast have up to 2 feet of settled snow on top of this interface, with decreasing amounts moving inland. 

    A wide variety of observations through our forecast area over the last week or more have shown good stability through the road corridor. Hundreds of users have tested slopes repeatedly with few observed or reported avalanches occurring on the 3/16 buried surface hoar layer.  Despite this, there is still a possibility of triggering an avalanche on this layer in areas where surface hoar is well preserved. Reports of well-formed surface hoar causing human-triggered avalanche activity have been received from areas to the South and East of our forecast area. Use caution if traveling to areas with fewer snowpack observations. 

    Buried surface hoar can persist and remain active for an extended period. Any area where well-preserved crystals are found below the overlying slab may be capable of producing avalanches for quite some time. Remain diligent and assess the snowpack on a slope-by-slope basis in remote or unfamiliar terrain.  Natural settlement of the overlying slab, temperature increase, and wind can all increase cohesion, which can increase the sensitivity of this weak layer where it is present.

     

     

     

    (3/19/2025)

     Natural avalanche in the books that likely failed on 3/16 BSH

    Photo: Eagan Gleasson

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate NE winds have been active in exposed upper elevations near Thompson Pass over the last 24 hours. Specific leeward upper elevation areas with enough snow available for transport may hold pockets of reactive wind slabs today. Expect these to be isolated and under 1 foot in depth in most areas. We do not expect this to be a widespread problem due to the limited extent of winds and the lack of snow for transport in many windy locations. Travellers should use caution if traveling in upper elevations where slabby snow exists. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Warm temperatures day and night have been affecting our snowpack at low elevations and on sunny aspects. Increasing ambient temperatures and solar radiation will increase the likelihood for wet loose during the heat of the day. Cornice fall will also become an increasing possibility as we begin our transition to a spring snowpack.  Overcast skies today will likely limit wet loose activity, however, the sun will likely pop out at some point, especially in the Continental zone.  Sun and temperature crusts have formed on solar aspects that will initially prevent wet loose activity.  Once the heat of the day breaks down these crusts, wet loose activity will become possible.  The first area to become active will be the steep rocky terrain where the sun's energy is more effectively absorbed by the dark color of rocks and then transmitted into the surrounding snow surface.  Pay attention to where the sun is in the sky; wet loose hazards will peak on a slope when the sun becomes perpendicular.

    Wet loose activity is a secondary concern to problem 1 listed above.  Steep terrain that produces wet loose activity will also have the potential for slab avalanches to fail naturally or be human-triggered.   Avoid steep terrain that is being heated up by the sun.  Even small slopes can be dangerous if they are above terrain traps or exposure.  

    Avoid exposure to areas with wet snow during the heat of the day.

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

Numerous D1-D2 Natural and Human triggered avalanches were reported in the Maritime zone and in valleys east of Marshall Pass.

Forecast Discussion:

With Thompson Pass being extremely busy this time of year, great weather, and excellent travel conditions, users will be accessing terrain that is outside of the core forecast area.  It is strongly advised for users to remain diligent and be suspect of the snowpack when traveling into new zones and valleys.  

Great snow and good stability have been observed in the majority of our forecast areas on shaded aspects.  The problem is that there is a layer of buried surface hoar that exists in more remote locations that could produce human triggered avalanches 1-2 feet in depth.  This creates a dangerous situation where a user's confidence could allow them to believe that the same good stability that has been observed on Thompson Pass and talked about in the parking lot would transfer over into all areas.  This is not the case; there have been recent reports of human-triggered and natural avalanches in valleys to the east of Marshall Pass as well as upper elevation terrain in the Maritime zone.  

Buried surface hoar can remain reactive for long periods; don't assume that time will necessarily heal this layer.  For example, a layer of buried surface hoar that was buried on Valentine's day has been responsible for multiple fatalities in the Turnagain Pass area, with the most recent accident on 3/22.  This is not to say that we have the same setup; we do not. However, this is simply an example of how buried surface hoar can remain reactive for long periods.  

Additional Information:

Watch out for cornices. A couple of cornice falls have been observed in the Continental region.

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 3/27 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow March Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    0    58     18 N/O     Thompson Pass    0    0   N/O     ~24    ~500 Nicks    0    0    146    15 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   22    5 N/O

Regions covered