Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Considerable.  Rain and wet snow, stressing weak layers in our snowpack below 3000 feet, will make human-triggered avalanches 1-2+ feet deep possible today. Above 3000 feet, accumulating storm snow has created storm slabs 1-2 feet deep that will be likely to be sensitive to human triggers, especially where snow has been stiffened by wind. Human-triggered avalanches have the possibility of stepping down into deeper weak layers, causing a more destructive slide. 

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Storm slabs 1-2+ feet deep in elevations above 3000 feet will be sensitive to human triggers today. Over the last 24 hours, storm slabs have become top-heavy due to the accumulation of about 6 inches of wet heavy snow in areas that remained below freezing. Pay attention to snow depth and consistency as you climb to higher elevations today. Stiffer heavy snow on top of a lighter base will indicate an increasing hazard in your area. Watch for classic signs of instability, including cracks shooting away from your feet, collapses, and, of course, recent avalanche activity. 

    Below 3000 feet:  Wet loose or wet slab avalanches may be possible in areas where the snowpack is saturated and could step down into the persistent weak layer discussed in problem 2.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Surface hoar that was buried on 1/26 has recently shown signs of instability in isolated areas below 3000 feet through Thompson Pass and in our Continental zone to the North. This layer is buried about 1.5 feet deep in Thompson Pass and less than a foot in the Continental zone. There has been minimal avalanche activity associated with this layer, and it has recently been stubborn to trigger on test slopes.  Additional rain and wet snow may make this layer more sensitive today in areas where the buried surface hoar remains intact. Expect the possibility of triggering avalanches 1-2 feet deep in areas where this problem exists. 

    Warm and wet weather will help decompose the weak layer of surface hoar, but for today,  we are assuming it still exists and could be reactive in specific areas below 3000 feet. Targeted observations over the next couple of days will determine the condition of this layer. More updates soon. 

    This problem does not exist in the Maritime zone anymore because the surface hoar has decomposed in warm temperatures.

    1/26 BSH found under 1 foot of new snow. Girls/ S/ 2300'/2mm grid

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Weak snow near the ground exists at all elevations and is now deeply buried in most locations. In many areas, basal facets are bridged by stronger, stiffer layers in the middle of the snowpack. As this problem gets deeper it becomes harder to trigger and is unlikely to produce obvious red flags like cracking or collapsing. Expect a stubborn, unreactive deep slab in most places—this is a low-likelihood / high-consequence setup.

    The most likely trigger points are thin spots, especially steep, rocky terrain where the weak layers are closer to the surface. A rider may be able to stress the basal weak snow in these shallow areas, and a small trigger could step down or propagate into deeper, thicker parts of the snowpack, producing a large and destructive avalanche. The best way to manage this problem is to avoid steep, rocky features and other shallow-snow areas where the snowpack is thin and variable.

    (1/23/2026)

    Large connected natural hard slab avalanche associated with our deep persistent weak layer. Mt Dimond north face

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  None

Forecast Discussion

Warm, wet weather has been affecting our snowpack over the last several days. Over the last 24 hours, most weather stations reached temperatures of at least 32 degrees with up to 40 degrees in Valdez and 46 mile. For today, expect warm temperatures and recent precipitation to contribute to instabilities at all elevations. Avalanche problems will vary depending on where you travel, so be sure to check the details for your particular area. 

For the medium/long term, these warm temperatures will help our snowpack gain strength.  We expect the 1/26 buried surface hoar to deteriorate rapidly as it metamorphoses under warm, wet snow, although this will need to be confirmed through field observations. Deeper weak, faceted snow is also gaining stength altough this process will take some time where large granular facets exist in the lower snowpack. 

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.   

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