Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A short but intense storm will impact the area today, favoring Girdwood, Turnagain Pass, and Portage. Heavy snowfall and strong winds will make large natural avalanches failing 1 to 3' deep in new and windblown snow very likely. Avalanche danger will rise quickly as snow accumulates, and travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for heavy snowfall and strong winds in Girdwood, Portage, and Turnagain Pass. This advisory is in effect until 7 pm this evening.

We’re excited to announce the annual Turnagain Pass Avalanche Awareness Day on Saturday, March 14! We will be up in the Turnagain Pass motorized lot from noon until 4 pm, along with AMDS, Anchorage Yamaha and Polaris, Anchorage Nordic Ski Patrol, Alaska Search and Rescue Dogs, and the Alaska Avalanche School. Stop by to demo a snowmachine, run through some avalanche rescue drills, or just grab a free burger or hot dog and chat with CNFAC forecasters about current avalanche conditions.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    After several weeks of high pressure, we are finally going to see a significant storm today. The snow is just starting to fall this morning, and we could see 12 to 24" snow in the Girdwood/Portage/Turnagain Pass area by this afternoon. Winds are already ramping up, and we will likely see speeds averaging 40 to 50 mph through the day. 

    This storm will be burying a mix of crusts and facets, neither of which is expected to bond well to the new snow. Natural avalanches will be very likely, and these could be up to 1 to 3' deep as the snow begins to pile up. It's looking like we are finally getting the reset we have been looking for, and it will take some restraint to stay out of avalanche terrain while the snowpack adjusts.

    (3/6/2026)

    Predicted snowfall totals from 3 am Friday through 3 am Saturday. Graphic courtesy of NWS Anchorage.

    Photo: NWS-Anchorage

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    This storm will be the biggest loading event the snowpack has experienced in over a month. It will add stress to two different buried weak layers, increasing the likelihood of larger avalanches. This includes the layer of faceted snow that formed in December and is now buried around 2 to 6' deep, as well as the faceted snow that formed below a rain crust from mid-February, and will be 2 to 3' deep by this afternoon.

    The odds of seeing something fail deeper in the snowpack are low, but today's storm will nudge buried weak layers closer to their breaking point. A smaller avalanche failing within new and windblown snow could step down and trigger something much larger failing on one of these deeper weak layers.

    This type of problem is difficult to assess and will remain a challenge after the storm passes. With the intense precipitation rates expected today, we are avoiding traveling on or below any avalanche terrain. 

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