Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Increased cloud cover and strengthening winds are expected to keep surface crusts frozen, putting a lid on wet avalanche concerns in most areas.  If we see periods of prolonged sunshine or if surface crusts melt away, causing you to sink deeply into wet snow, the potential for triggering a full-depth wet slide exists.   The avalanche danger will rise tomorrow as heavy snowfall causes instabilities in the new snow to develop.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Much of the snowpack is saturated and has yet to see a solid refreeze. Shallow surface crusts that formed last night should remain intact and prevent wet loose avalanches from initiating in most areas, unless we see prolonged periods of sunshine.  At lower elevations, temperatures might warm enough to thaw the snow surface, creating the isolated potential for wet avalanches that gouge to the ground.  If your skis or machine are sinking deeply into wet snow, choose slope angles less than 35 degrees to avoid triggering a wet avalanche.  

    If surface crusts melt away into cohesionless wet snow, you might be be able to trigger a gouging wet avalanche like this.  

Avalanche Discussion

Today's wet avalanche battle features another mild night (temperatures dropped into the mid 30s at 11,000') vs. increased clouds and strengthening winds today.  Thanks to radiative cooling, the last few nights have featured a supportive refreeze, providing good stability until surface crusts melt each afternoon.  Today, we're expecting mostly cloudy to overcast skies, which should help preserve surface crusts throughout the entire day in most areas.  Watch for isolated exceptions, particularly at lower elevations, as the day warms up.  The danger will rise to Moderate if thick cloud cover doesn't materialize as expected.  

Tomorrow -no April Fool's joke - you will wake up to a wintry scene, with snowfall expected to reach 1 to 2+ feet at higher elevations by sunset.  Do your homework today to make note of where you can find a rideable base - many southerly slopes have melted out, and some shadier slopes have recently avalanched to the ground or have large wet debris piles in their tracks.  In steep terrain, our current snow surfaces (textured melt-freeze crusts resulting from the heat wave) should bond more favorably than the weak layers that typically form during prolonged droughts.  That said, we are looking at significant snowfall that could lead to dangerous conditions tomorrow, especially at higher elevations. You'll need to assess and manage for new-snow instabilities that could form on crusts or mid-storm weak layers.  The colder temperatures through the rest of the week should cause deeper wet issues to diminish significantly and eventually go away. With a significant loading event on a saturated snowpack that has seen only surface refreezes, we can't completely rule out the rare potential for a large wet slab release during tomorrow's storm, similar to this avalanche last season.  

Events: Join us Friday, April 3, at the Talk of the Town from 5-8 p.m. for our Party for the People. We will have live music from CBAC house band Deep Slab Instability and beers are on us. It’s our way of saying thanks for all of the support again this year!

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