Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

With numerous persistent weak layers in the upper 3' of our snowpack, it remains possible to trigger an avalanche on slopes >30 degrees.  The weakest snowpack structure has been observed near and below the tree line, on all aspects.  Mother nature may offer free clues such as whumpfing and collapsing of the snowpack to help temper your terrain selection, but it's recommended to dig into the upper snowpack and looks for signs and symptoms of buried surface hoar before committing to slopes >30 degrees.  

This forecast is sponsored by Outlaw Motorsports in Enterprise, OR.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    What is it?  Forecasters have observed buried surface hoar in the upper 3' of the snowpack in the Northern and Southern Wallowas and Elkhorns, in the past week.  A natural avalanche was observed on Sunday in the Southern Wallowas at Fish Lake, failing 1-3' in depth on a layer of surface hoar that was buried around January 4th.  This avalanche was large enough to bury and kill a person.  

    Where is it?  Various layers of surface hoar have been observed primarily near and below the treeline throughout our forecasting zones.  The avalanche at Fish Lake was on a NE aspect at 7,000' on a steep slope >30 degrees.  This avalanche likely reached the breaking point when the wind loaded the upper portion of the start zone.   I found very reactive surface hoar buried around 1.5-2' deep this past week in both the Southern Wallowas and Western Wallowas below 7,000'.  

    How can you recognize it?  The easiest Red Flag observation is a collapsing or whumpfing of the snowpack.  Last weekend while snowmobiling between Schneider Meadows and Fish Lake, my group experienced many whumpfs.  This tells me the surface hoar was present in those locations and was collapsing under the weight of my machine.  If you take the time to dig into the snowpack, you may observe a thin grey-colored line, and observe clean shears where the buried surface hoar exists.  

    How can you manage it?  Surface hoar is a sneaky weak layer. These avalanches may break wider than expected or higher on the slope above you. You may be able to trigger a slide after several riders have safely climbed or descended a given slope, and there's an outside chance you could remotely trigger an avalanche from gentler terrain above, below, or to the sides of steeper slopes. Avoid lower and middle elevation slopes on all aspects of the compass that are steeper than about 35* to significantly reduce the chances of finding trouble. Steer clear of large wind drifts or slabs in very steep terrain. Picture where even a small avalanche could carry you before committing to playing in large or consequential avalanche paths.

    (1/19/2023)

    Buried Surface hoar was reactive 40cm below the surface.  

    Photo: VM

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–3

    In addition to the persistent weak layers in the top few feet of the snowpack, there are more deeply buried layers to keep on your radar. These facets (often above, below, or in between crusts) are buried beneath dense, 2-4+ thick slabs—making them difficult to trigger but capable of producing very dangerous avalanches. While triggering them is unlikely, it can't be ruled out in steep, rocky, wind-affected terrain. Slopes like these have variable snow depths, with thinner areas of the snowpack that allow us to impact deeper weak layers. 

    Our forecasters are still observing preserved facets found near the ground from early snow that fell in late October and early November.  We will continue to monitor this weak base of our snowpack.  In some locations, facets have been observed sandwiched between the Christmas crust.  The facet/crust sandwich is a bad combination and known to produce large avalanches in our local mountains.  

    (1/19/2023)

    We found reactivity in both of our current avalanche problems in this snowpit.  Full propagation in the ECT on the buried surface hoar and basal facets.  

    Photo: VM

Avalanche Discussion

As our snowpack becomes more complicated the biggest piece of advice we can offer is to continue to stick to simple terrain.  Terrain is the one component of the avalanche triangle that we have control over.  If you are able to create a route based on the day's avalanche forecast, weather conditions, and recent observations that limits you and your group's exposure to avalanche terrain you can have a safe and enjoyable day.  There is plenty of good snow out there, but "stepping out" to steeper and larger terrain features increases your chances of triggering a large avalanche.  

While you are out and about keep an eye and ear out for mother nature's clues that she is unhappy.  These are known are the 5 Red Flags, and are freebies.  If you hear and feel the snowpack collapse or whumpf, it's very likely you are on top of buried surface hoar or faceted snow.  Other warning signs include shooting cracks, wind-drifted snow, and natural avalanches.  Just because you don't observe these Red Flags, doesn't mean it's open season.  You must take time to dig into the snowpack and look for the weak layers we are talking about.  If you see poor snowpack structure that trumps all.  To learn more about persistent weak layers, check out this movie.  

Forecasters, local ski guides and avalanche course instructors are all using simple terrain to severely limit their chances of triggering a persistent or deep persistent slab avalanche.  It's far easier to enjoy skiing and riding slopes less than 30 degrees, than to tip-toe around feeling insecure about your terrain choices.  At the end of the day ask yourself and your group, "did we make smart terrain choices, or did we just get lucky?"  

The 11 Annual Eastern Oregon Backcountry Festival is coming up.  Join us for our biggest fundraiser of the year February 3-5th. 

  • Friday, Feb 3rd: HQ in La Grande we are showing "Buried" the 1982 Alpine Meadows Avalanche.  Pies will be auctioned off after the show! 
  • Saturday, Feb 4th: Kip Rand Memorial Race register here.  Winners will receive $100 cash or an Anthony Lakes season pass for 23/24.  Mens and womens division.   (You must show up 15 minutes before the race starts at the EOBF tent near the rental shop. )
  • Snow safety clinics 10 AM Avalanche Companion Rescue Clinic.  Register here.  1 PM Snowpack Observation Clinic. Register here.  Space is limited, reserve your spot.  (You must show up 15 minutes before the clinics start at the EOBF tent near the rental shop. ) 
  • Bag of Hammers 3 PM at the Star Bottle Saloon.  Live auction and raffle.  
  • On Sunday you can join the forecasters for a tour into Angel Basin.  Register Here.  

If you aren't able to make it out for the events you can support the WAC by purchasing raffle tickets or bidding on items in our online auction here.  The online auction and raffle will run from Jan 20th at Midnight to February 5th at 8PM.  

 

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