Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

As the day heats up you may be able to trigger small wet loose avalanches on steep sunny slopes. Think about moving to shadier areas to avoid this wet and weak snow. If you push to higher elevations, keep an eye out for pockets of wind-drifted snow on leeward terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Sunshine, mild temps, and low wind speeds!  With this, you’ll likely encounter wet snow on sunny aspects by the late morning hours. In these spots, wet loose avalanches will be possible for you to trigger.  Look for rollerballs and pinwheels releasing as these are indicators telling you the surface is becoming wet and weak. Move to shadier slopes once you start seeing these signs. 

    Move off of steep sunny slopes if you notice signs like this. 

    Photo: Joe Dellaporta

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Any newly formed wind slabs from the sneaky inch are likely shallow and isolated in distribution. However, what I would be most concerned about are the older, wind slabs that formed on 2/8. These older slabs are showing signs of healing and are becoming more stubborn to trigger, but these could really mess your day up if you do get caught. 

    Look for these wind slabs on specific slopes, such as on the lee-sides of ridges, under cornices, the top of chutes/couloirs, and on any convex roll in the alpine. 

    This avalanche dragon is easy to navigate around. Just use your eyes and look for rounded pillows of snow and fresh cornices to help you identify possible slopes of concern. Avoid steeper lines if you see signs of unstable snow, such as shooting cracks or hear snow that sounds hollow like a drum. 

    (12/3/2022)

    A shooting crack in a stiff pocket of wind-drifted snow. Move away from steep wind-loaded slopes if you see signs like this. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

The system that rolled through last evening was not much of a producer for the East-South. Snotel sites picked up a trace-1 inch of new snow on average. The bigger story was the uptick in NW winds, which likely drifted  the low density snow around in the alpine.  Fortunatly, the wind speeds tapered as the day progressed.  If you travel to the highest elevations of the zone (above 7000 ft), such as places like Mt Aix, you may still find isolated areas of reactive wind slab on leeward terrain features. In these areas, ease into  terrain and use cautious route-finding. 

I traveled into the Ahtanum Meadows area on Wednesday and observed 10-12 inches of new storm snow from the evening of 2/7. We generally found a favorable upper snowpack structure and minimal signs of instability as we traveled. Near ridgetop we did observe signs of recent wind-loading, however, these slabs appeared stubborn on test slopes.

The MLK crust remains a prominent marker in the upper snowpack. Generally we found this layer to be 1-2’ below the snow surface. We still found some weak snow associated with the crust, however, this layer did not show the ability to propagate in snowpack tests in the location we were.  Unsurprisingly, we found the weakest snow (rounding facets) on shaded aspects (NW-N NE) above 6500 ft. Overall, we found great riding conditions and a fairly strong upper snowpack. You can check out our full observation here. 

Saturday will be a beautiful day to be out in the mountains. You’ll likely see everyone and their best friend in those more popular spots such as Ahtanum Meadows. So with that, it will be a great opportunity to practice safe travel techniques such as using good communication, giving other parties space, and only exposing one person at a time on bigger terrain features. 

If you get out into the East-South, please let us know what you see by submitting a public observation!

 

Regions covered