Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The snowpack is generally improving, but a small chance exists for slabs to break 1 to 2 feet deep on small-grained facets or faceted crusts in the upper snowpack, or several feet thick or more on weak layers near the ground.  Areas with 3 to 5 feet of total snowpack are the most concerning for avalanches to fail near the ground.  Assess the snowpack structure and terrain consequences before riding in steep terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    In the Southeast Mountains, there are several faceted weak layers in the snowpack that have produced avalanches this week.  The most recent storms buried facets and faceted crusts up to a couple of feet thick, and there is a lurking layer of depth hoar near the ground.  Avalanches breaking near the ground are most concerning in terrain with an unusually shallow snowpack between 3 to 5 feet deep.   Instabilities in the upper snowpack are more common in wind-drifted terrain.  Use small, steep slopes and/or stability tests to assess for instabilities in the upper snowpack.  You can generally avoid the problem by staying on slopes consistently less than about 35 degrees.   

    These avalanches on Snodgrass appear to be remotely triggered on 2/1.  They failed on a faceted crust buried about 16" deep.  

Avalanche Discussion

The danger rating has dropped to LOW for the Northwest Mountains.  Over a week ago, a layer of facets and faceted crusts was buried 1 to 3 feet deep.  Some natural avalanche activity occurred on well-drifted slopes (natural activity after the storm cleared) and on sunny slopes.  A trickle of natural and human-triggered avalanches occurred Tuesday through Thursday primarily on sunny terrain when slabs were warming and settling (Red Lady, Snodgrass, Schuylkill Ridge, Evan's Basin).  The snowpack had an additional few days since this activity to adjust to the previous storm and modestly rising temperatures.  Triggering an avalanche in the upper snowpack is 'unlikely' but not impossible.  Take the time to assess the upper snowpack, particularly on sunny slopes that may become moist or wet at the surface with daytime heating, and bring a thoughtful mindset if you consider 'stepping out' into bigger and steeper terrain.  Today's LOW danger is not the same as a late spring LOW danger day. 

The avalanche danger remains MODERATE in the Southeast Mountains.  Two layers of concern exist across the terrain; one in the upper snowpack and in some areas deeper weak layers of concern.  The layer of facets buried 1 to 2 feet down and the potential for avalanches to break on deeper weak layers.  Travel advice for upper snowpack problems is similar for both forecast zones, but for some areas in the Southeast Mountains that are snow-deprived (less than 5 feet deep), you should consider the potential for a surprise avalanche that breaks deeply and propagates widely.  A recent example of this came from Park Cone on Wednesday which resides outside the CBAC forecast areas but has similar snowpack depths to some portions of the Southeast Mountains.  This forecaster follow-up has a lot of informative details about the close call.  An additional observation came in yesterday from above Copper Creek with unstable pit results on deeper weak layers on a slope that was around 5 feet deep.  That is why we are continuing to message the threat of avalanches breaking on deeply buried weak layers in our shallower zone.  A good rule of thumb would be to consider this threat in areas with less than 5 feet of total snowpack depth and change your travel habits by selecting lower-angle terrain when you are in doubt. 

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