Avalanche forecast

Seeley Lake

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche warning has been terminated. However, dangerous avalanche conditions persist. Riders are very likely to trigger storm slab avalanches well over 2 feet deep in upper-elevation terrain today. Strong to extreme northeast winds are building windslab on west and south aspects. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Sheltered, low-angle terrain at mid-elevation is the best place to ride today.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    The North fork of the Jocko is showing a storm total of 2.7" Snow Water equivalent (SWE) this morning or likely over 3' of new snow. Yesterday, we found abundant signs of instability in the Richmond peak area with shooting cracks and collapses.  A layer of surface hoar was found about 6" below the new snow and likely contributed to the touchiness of the storm slab. Rider-triggered avalanches on the west side Thursday likely failed on the same layer. Observations from the west side reported 2' of new snow as of yesterday afternoon and heavy snowfall.  Some snow was releasing off convexities, and very steep terrain had small natural activity, but visibility limited observations. 

    Today it is very likely for riders to trigger avalanches large enough to bury, injure or kill a person in upper elevations. Avalanches are likely at middle elevations and possible at lower elevations.  Where the snow is wind affected slabs will be deeper and touchier. Last night's snow came in cold and will be light, increasing the chance of loose dry avalanches that could step down to a slab avalanche below the new snow. Yesterday winds were out of the northwest, and today they have switched to northeast, meaning that wind loading has occurred on multiple aspects. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. If you do get out, sheltered mid-elevation slopes are the better choice. Keep slope angles low, ideally below 30º, stay off of and well away from the base of avalanche slopes and avoid convexities. Recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and whumphing are all signs telling you to keep it mellow. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong northeast winds, with extreme gusts, will build windslab on NW through SE slopes today. There is abundant new snow available for transport, and strong winds will carry it further down slopes than normally encountered and cross-load slopes. The risk of fresh windslab avalanches will increase throughout the day. It is likely for riders to trigger a wind slab avalanche multiple feet thick. Coupled with the storm slab, the potential for buried surface hoar, and frigid temperatures, any slide today could be very consequential. 

    Sheltered treed mid-elevation slopes are your best bet today for avoiding wind slab, and the NE wind. Choosing low-angle terrain,  below 30º is the west way to mitigate the avalanche hazard. Stay alert for signs of wind loading, such as wind lips, drifts, and stiff hollow feeling pillows of snow. Shooting cracks are a clear warning sign that avalanches are possible. 

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday we issued an avalanche warning with high avalanche hazard at upper and middle elevations due to heavy snowfall and wind. Reports of avalanches Thursday pointed to increasing avalanche hazard and a high likelihood of an avalanche cycle. We certainly got the snow. 3.5" snow water equivalent SWE has fallen at the Stuart SNOTEL in the Rattlesnake, 2.7". However,  outside of Snowbowl, just 10" of dense but dry new snow was found. Higher amounts likely exist elsewhere in the Rattlesnake. The North fork of the Jocko in the Seeley Zone shows 2.7" SWE, which agrees with observations from the west side yesterday afternoon. The east side of the Seeley zone on Richmond peak received much less snow, with a foot of fresh found yesterday. Twin Lakes in the central Bitterroot shows 2' SWE as the storm total. Lolo Pass and the southern Bitterroot were mostly passed over with just 0.6" of SWE. Winds did blow as hard as forecast, and snow transport was not as extensive as anticipated. 

Overall, the new snow was not as reactive as anticipated. In the Rattlesnake and Bitterroot, it was somewhat stubborn to skier triggering, although we were able to get some movement. The snow was touchier where wind loaded. Snowbowl patrol triggered several small avalanches about 10" deep with explosives. Overall the avalanche hazard was Considerable. Today it is likely for skiers and riders to trigger avalanches in terrain over 35º.

In the Seeley zone, a layer of surface hoar, likely developed earlier this week, was found below the new snow. Conditions felt touchier, and there was more potential for human-triggered avalanches. Hazard at upper elevations the hazard approached high. 

Overnight we received up to one foot of new snow. Colder temperatures mean it will be lighter and more likely to create loose dry avalanches than slabs. Based on yesterday's conditions, it likely hasn't increased avalanche hazard dramatically. 

The largest impact to the snowpack and recreationists today is the frigid temperatures and strong northeast winds with extreme gusts. Windslab will develop throughout the day on northwest through southeast slopes at upper and middle elevations. The cold will compound the problem and make any incident more consequential. Staying in low angle, sheltered terrain and in the trees is a good plan today to limit exposure to the developing windslab and cold wind. Enjoy the fresh powder on low-angle slopes, and give the snowpack a few days to adjust and temperatures to warm up. 

Stay alert for signs of instability, such as shooting cracks, whumpfing, and recent avalanches. All are a sign of dangerous avalanche conditions. 

Please submit an observation telling us how much new snow there is and if you see any signs of instability. 

Ski and ride safe

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