Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Extreme southwest winds and accumulating snow will create dangerous avalanche conditions on wind-loaded slopes at near and above treeline elevations. Strong winds will also push down to lower elevations and lead to wind-loading in unusual places. In wind-sheltered areas, slab avalanches will become more reactive during bands of heavy snowfall while developing persistent slabs could produce larger avalanches than you may expect. We have a blustery day coming up with changing avalanche conditions. Caution is advised.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2

    Storm slabs will be likely to human trigger or they may release naturally on wind-loaded terrain. While in wind-sheltered terrain there is uncertainty as to how reactive this avalanche problem will become. Avoiding wind-loaded slopes would be a good start for managing this avalanche problem. While in wind-sheltered areas look for small, steep test slopes to help identify how reactive the avalanche problem is. Expect changing avalanche conditions throughout the day and for the sensitivity of the avalanche problem to become more reactive during periods of heavy snowfall. 

    Small, steep test slopes can help identify unstable Storm Slabs. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Since the end of January, the upper snowpack has become layered and more complicated. Persistent slab avalanche concerns will first develop in the highlighted areas above. Buried in the upper snowpack on these highlighted areas, is a stack of thin crusts with layers of facets between them. These persistent weak layers may produce remotely triggered avalanches, and avalanches that both release deeper and wider than you expect. Given how specifically located this avalanche problem is, changing avalanche conditions could easily catch you off guard while moving from one slope to another. Traveling on lower-angled slopes without overhead hazards is one way to manage this avalanche problem. 

    Layers of facets sandwiched between thin crusts are creating persistent slab avalanche concerns in some areas. 

Avalanche Discussion

As of 5am the NW Mountains have snow totals in the 6 to 8-inch range, while totals in the SE Mountains are in the 3 to 5" range. Wind speeds have dropped in the last few hours, but they are expected to ramp right back up this morning. There is high confidence in the dangerous avalanche conditions developing at upper elevations and on wind-loaded slopes. There is plenty of snow available for transport with strong to extreme winds in the forecast. There is lower confidence in the developing storm slab avalanche problem in wind-sheltered terrain. Snow totals are modest and temperatures will be dropping through the day. That will help keep this avalanche problem from becoming very reactive. However, the forecast is calling for bands of high precipitation rates to move through the area and these could create rapidly changing avalanche conditions with storm slabs becoming more reactive during and after these events. 

Persistent slab avalanche concerns continue in the SE Mountains and this avalanche problem is also more widespread in that forecast area. A persistent slab avalanche problem was also added to the NW Mountains as persistent weak layers that were formed in the last month are now coming into play. 

We have accumulating snow and elevated winds in the forecast for the remainder of the work week. Avalanche problems will continue to grow during this time and dangerous avalanche conditions can be expected to continue.

Regions covered