Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanches of wet loose snow remain possible on steep slopes due to light rain, warm weather, and little to no overnight refreeze. Sticking to less steep slopes in areas where the snow surface feels wet, or you see signs of unstable wet snow like roller balls, or pinwheels, can reduce your exposure to wet loose avalanches. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    With little to no refreeze last night, wet loose avalanches remain possible today on all aspects and elevations. Stepping off your equipment into deep wet snow, seeing roller balls and pinwheels, or triggering sluffs of wet snow on small test slopes all indicate that larger wet loose avalanches could occur.  Where wet snow exists, recreating on lower-angle slopes without steep slopes or other overhead hazards (like cornices) can reduce your exposure to wet loose avalanches. 

    Warm weather and cloudy skies have kept the snowpack from experiencing much of a refreeze for several days. This lack of refreeze, combined with today's rain, means widespread deep wet snow across the forecast area all day. This wet loose snow could slide downhill on steep slopes, and if it does, it will entrain more snow as it moves. Long, steep slopes can produce larger wet loose avalanches that could push a person into a terrain trap, like a gully or over a cliff, or may even involve enough snow to injure a person. While many cornices have already failed during the rain event and warm weather, any that remain could still collapse while the weather remains warm. The wet, mushy snow and uneven rain-runneled surfaces continue to make travel conditions challenging.

    (2/28/2026)

    Wet loose slide on test slope from an angle.

    Ebbetts Pass

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Triggering a large-to-very large slab avalanche has become unlikely as the storm snow has melted and settled due to rain and warm weather. The old weak layers (Feb 10 facets) have also gotten wet. There have been no reported large avalanches failing on the Feb. 10 layer from during or after the large rain event. That being said, an isolated avalanche might not be impossible while the snowpack remains wet and unfrozen. Once things refreeze, the snowpack should gain more strength. 

Avalanche Discussion

The recent rain event decreased snow depths dramatically, especially below 7,500' and on southerly aspects. This has created a hazard situation similar to early-season coverage in some areas.  Deep open holes, open creeks, and ponded water linger in low-lying areas, especially below 8,000'.

The avalanche that occurred on Tuesday, February 17, at the Frog Lake/Castle Peak area is a major blow to our community, and the human toll is immeasurable.  Our condolences go out to all those affected by this tragedy.  We have an avalanche observation posted here:  Perry Peak near Frog Lake/Castle Peak. We will update that page with any additional information that becomes available.

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