Avalanche forecast

Snoqualmie Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Take note of how the March sun is affecting the snow around you. It could result in wet avalanches or an uptick in the potential for large, dangerous persistent slabs. Make travel plans that give you plenty of options to avoid these overlapping avalanche problems.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    This is the avalanche problem that should be shaping your travel plans on Monday. While the likelihood of triggering these layers is up for debate, there is no disagreement among anyone who has taken the time to look - they are there, and they are weak. This could result in dangerously large avalanches that break widely or even trigger remotely (from a distance).

    Due to last week's wind event, slabs could be thicker and potentially more sensitive in wind-loaded areas. As we add warmth to the snowpack, we introduce more uncertainty to an already unsettling problem. 

    This problem is difficult to diagnose in the field, so you likely won't receive much feedback before an avalanche occurs. Maybe you'll get a whumpfing collapse or a shooting crack, but that's not a guarantee. The best mitigation tool you have is terrain avoidance. 

    (3/1/2026)

    A natural slab avalanche near the border between the Snoqualmie, West Central, and East Central zones. This one isn't confirmed to be a persistent slab, but our weak layers are region-wide.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Monday will be the warmest day of this mini heat wave, meaning wet avalanches will again be on the docket. 

    There will likely be a surface crust first thing in the morning. But once it breaks down and the surface gets warm and sticky or you see snow shedding on steep slopes, you'll know that wet avalanche activity could soon follow. That will be your cue to head for shaded, low-angle terrain, staying aware of slopes above you.

    This avalanche problem is typically easy to manage, but with persistent weak layers lurking below the surface, it becomes more complex. In addition to fanning out and growing in size as they descend, the threat now exists that they will trigger larger and more dangerous persistent slab avalanches. 

    The same logic applies to cornice failures. A danger in their own right, they could be the trigger that collapses our weak layers during this heat wave.

    (3/1/2026)

    Wet avalanches and even a slab on the sunny slopes of Mount Snoqualmie. Wet loose or cornices that fail could trigger slabs on the slopes below due to a weak upper snowpack.

    Photo: Aidan Crawford

Avalanche Discussion

On Thursday, February 26th, a skier was fully buried in an avalanche at Stevens Pass Resort. Despite a long burial time, the skier was successfully rescued by Stevens Pass Patrol and treated for non-life-threatening injuries. The avalanche occurred on a wind-loaded northwest aspect near 5,3000ft and likely ran on a persistent weak layer over a crust, 15-20" deep.

The likelihood of our persistent weak layers failing remains the crux of each avalanche forecast. On one hand, we have found a weak snowpack structure everywhere we have looked. On Sunday, NWAC forecasters in the eastern part of the zone found the 2/13 and 2/7 weak layers near Microwave Hill. At this point, the structure is well documented, but test results vary. Generally speaking, tests still indicate we have a problem.

On the flip side, we haven't had any direct feedback on these layers at Snoqualmie Pass for a week now (that we know of). That could be an indication to drop the likelihood down and start talking about low-likelihood/high-consequence or "scary moderate" conditions. However, with neighboring zones humming with activity on these layers and Monday expected to be the warmest day of the week, it seems prudent to continue discussing dangerous avalanche conditions in the mountains. The warmth is the real X factor, as we've seen an uptick in activity around the region as temps soared this weekend. 

Take some time and discuss the conditions and your acceptable level of risk with your partners. This snowpack is atypical for Snoqualmie Pass, and your normal assessments and travel plans may not hold up. You can't do anything about the weak layers in the snowpack, but you can choose terrain that matches your risk tolerance and skill set.

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