Avalanche forecast

Seeley Lake

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We start the day at a MODERATE hazard, but expect to see conditions deteriorate with ongoing snowfall and wind transport. Human triggered avalanches involving the new snow will become increasingly likely as the day progresses. Below the new snow, well-defined weak layers exist in the upper 1-3 feet of the snowpack. Slides breaking on these layers will be large, wide, and destructive. At low and middle elevations, the snowpack is warm from days of heat and now wet from rain. Small wet snow avalanches will be easy to trigger on steep slopes and will quickly gain mass and speed on large slopes. It is a bit of a mess out there. Safe travel today will require you to avoid rain-soaked snow down low, dodge the wind slabs up high, and manage a widespread persistent slab problem.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Prominent weak layers are buried in the upper 1-3 feet of the snowpack. Dig down and you'll find facets, surface hoar, and crust+facet combinations, depending on your aspect and elevation. Last week, during an intense storm, these layers produced a widespread natural avalanche cycle (you can view recent avalanches here). Many slides broke hundreds of feet wide. The largest slides spanned 1,500-2,000' feet of terrain (photo at right/above). These layers became less reactive and harder to impact as the slab above them stiffened, but the ongoing storm is working to wake them back up.

    Avalanches that fail on these layers of weak snow will break widely and will be able to wrap around terrain features. This produces large, unpredictable avalanches with deep piles of debris that you do not want to be in. You can trigger these slides from below or near steep slopes. Completely avoiding this problem includes avoiding terrain threatened from above. 

    Large, 1,500-foot-wide slab avalanche that failed naturally in the Seeley Lake zone during last week's storm. Similar avalanches are possible today.

    Photo: Ben VandenBos

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    5-10 inches of snow fell at upper elevations in the past 18 hours. An additional 3-7 inches are expected by nightfall. Moderate W-NW winds blow throughout the day, transporting the new snow and building slabs. These features will grow in size and sensitivity as the new snow piles up and the wind moves it. 

    Expect to find these near ridgelines and midslope features like gullies that slow the wind down and force it to drop the snow it is carrying. Pay attention to the snow you are moving through. If you are suddenly finding much more snow, or if the snow is becoming thicker and denser, you have likely found a wind slab. Cracks shooting out from your machine or your ski tips are clear signs the slab you found is unstable. Triggered wind slabs will be plenty large to ruin your day or worse, and will be effective triggers for the larger persistent slab avalanches described above as they run downslope. 

    Avalanche in steep, wind-loaded terrain in the Bitterroot Mountains. 

    (2/28/2026) Photo: Ben VandenBos

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    It is a wet mess at lower elevations and in the lower half of the middle elevation band. The snow down low did a lot of melting during the recent heat, and it's been raining here since yesterday afternoon. Expect to find a saturated snowpack if you start down low. A warm cap of new snow may mask this problem; spend a bit of time digging into the snow with your hands, paying attention to how wet it is. You'll be able to easily push this wet snow into wet loose avalanches on steep slopes. Wet slab avalanches are notoriously unpredictable, but we've got the recipe for them (buried weak becoming saturated, with a dense slab on top). Exercise caution in steep terrain at lower and middle elevations as you move from mud to winter. 

Avalanche Discussion

THE WET, THE DRY, and THE UGLY

In recent days, the snow has settled into a conditional stability, following an intense storm, a major wind event, and a widespread avalanche cycle last week. A set of weak layers buried 1-3 feet below the snow surface gradually became less reactive this week, and lots of folks were poking into steeper terrain and not triggering slides. Unfortunately, we are firmly headed in the other direction today.

THE WET: At the low elevations, you'll find mostly puddles and mud. If your day starts here, you'll struggle to keep your sled cool and your skins dry while grimacing about all the rocks you're riding over. Cimb a bit, and you'll encounter a saturated snowpack, melted by days of heat and now soaked with rain. Small wet snow avalanches will be easy to trigger on steep slopes where the snow is wet. 

THE DRY: In upper elevation terrain, you'll find a dry, still wintery snowpack. In the last 18 hours, the mountains picked up a fresh 5-10 inches of dense snow. Moderate winds are building slabs with this fresh snow as you read this. Ongoing snowfall and wind will help these slabs become larger, more reactive, and more destructive as the day progresses.

THE UGLY: As a careful reader, you likely noticed that the persistent slab problem is still at the top of the list, despite the more likely wind and wet problems. That's because these layers are the ones that will make very large, surprising, and hard-to-predict avalanches. There is a good deal of uncertainty about how these will respond to the new load being applied to them. In sheltered terrain, its less likely that the recent snow will wake these layers back up. In windy terrain where slabs are building, the chances of these weak layers failing are greater. In the middle elevations, where these weak layers have been soaked by rain, all bets are off. These persistent weak layers are our primary problem because they are the main driver of terrain selection today. Dodging wind slabs and wet snow problems will not eliminate your chance of encountering one of these beasts.

If this all sounds complex, I'm doing a good job describing it. Go out into the snowy/rainy world prepared to encounter a different snowpack than you've been playing on in recent days. If you choose to enter avalanche terrain, manage the uncertainty involving the persistent slab problem (dry up high, wet down low) by choosing simpler, gentler terrain where the consequences of being caught and carried in a slide are less. As a friendly reminder, you can always enjoy a lower-stress day of turns and throttle by steering clear of avalanche terrain and terrain threatened from above. 

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