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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 29th, 2016–Dec 30th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

If you are riding Corbin or other shallow snowpack areas, the South Rockies forecast region may be more applicable to your local conditions at this time.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Dry with some sunny spells. Winds mostly light soughwesterly. Treeline temperatures around -6C. SATURDAY: Dry with some sunny spells. Ridgetop winds 20-40km/h from the southwest. Temperatures around -8C.SUNDAY: Light snow in the morning, 5-10 cm. Winds becoming moderate northeasterly. Temperatures around -13C.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday small size 1 avalanches could be easily ski cut behind ridgecrests on all aspects in the new snow. A large human-triggered avalanche was reported near Corbin in the Flathead Range in an area where wind had firmed up the surface snow but where sugary facets were present lower down in the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Quite a lot (up to 50 cm) of recent low density snow has fallen, which is now available to be redistributed by mostly moderate southwesterly winds. The new snow sits above a variety of surfaces including old hard wind slabs and surface hoar. The cold weather in early December left several layers of weak surface hoar and facets which are now buried 50-80 cm deep. These layers have been inactive for the past week, as it appears the lower snowpack is well-settled. A thick crust rain crust from mid-November is near the bottom of the snowpack and remains well bonded to the surrounding snow.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.