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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 22nd, 2014–Dec 23rd, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Stevens Pass.

Avoid steep previous lee slopes with firmer wind transported snow from the recent storm mainly in the above treeline band Tuesday.

Detailed Forecast

Some light showers should move to the Cascade west slopes on Tuesday. This is not likely to create significant new layers by Tuesday afternoon. Note that a more significant increase in winds and rain or snow is expected in the northwest Cascades Tuesday afternoon.

Watch for wind slab from the previous storm that will be most likely to linger on steep north to southeast slopes in the above treeline band.

Increasing winds and increasing rain or snow will likely begin to create new layers Tuesday night.

Snowpack Discussion

A strong warm storm moved over the Northwest Saturday and Sunday. Winds were seen to over 100 mph at some locations. Precipitation was generally heavy or very heavy near and west of the crest and moderate to heavy east of the crest. Precipitation fell as snow mainly in the above treeline zone Saturday and Sunday.

Easy tests, triggered storm slab avalanches, collapsing and whoomping were seen in this area including Mt Baker and Silver Basin near Crystal Mountain on Saturday as the storm was revving up. This action was seen at the early December crust at 60-110 cm below the surface.

No avalanches were reported Sunday due to stabilizing and a lack of back country travel.

Decreasing winds and a little cooling were seen at the tail end of the storm Sunday night and Monday with a little snow making it down to NWAC weather stations in the below treeline zones. No avalanches have been reported so far Monday and conditions will have greatly stabilized.

Some lingering wind slab and storm slab are likely mainly in the above treeline zone on Monday. A persistent weak layer will not be indicated for the early December crust layer unless it shows signs of activity in the future.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.