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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 17th, 2015–Apr 18th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Warm overnight temperatures prevented a refreeze of the upper snowpack.  Stay clear of slopes receiving direct solar input and remember that cornices over shaded slopes are getting baked from behind.  Large avalanches are likely today.

Weather Forecast

Warm daytime temperatures continue with freezing levels climbing to 2500m and an alpine high of 6.  Ridge winds are SW 25km/h gusting to 70km/h.  Mostly sunny today but trace amounts of rain are expected from convective precipitation.  Alpine temperatures will remain warm tonight with a temperature inversion.  Strong sun and warmth this weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temps yesterday weakened the upper snowpack. High overnight temperatures prevented a refreeze of the surface snow. A reactive slab on a persistent weak layer down 50cm sits on a crust on solar aspects and surface hoar on sheltered NE aspects. A moist or wet layer that persists down 50cm will weaken rapidly with the forecasted warm temps.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural size 1.5 solar triggered avalanches were observed in the Balu Pass area. Avalanches started as loose snow and triggered slabs on unsupported features.    A size 2.0 natural avalanche was observed on the W side of Mt Cheops, into Cougar Valley.  Avalanches cycles are expected during peak warming periods of the day.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.