Be cautious as you transition into bigger terrain; the variable distribution of the persistent slab may surprise you with severe consequences. Rising temps over the next few days may increase avalanche danger by Tuesday.
Weather Forecast
High pressure and NW'ly flow continues. Expect alpine sun and valley cloud today, with light N'ly winds. Temps will be around -15. A warm front will move into the region overnight bringing clouds, flurries, moderate NW winds, and rapidly rising temps with alpine inversion temps of -3 on Mon. On Tues, expect some sun and temps up to -2.
Snowpack Summary
70cm of storm snow is settling into a cohesive slab which overlies the Jan.4 persistent layer. The distribution of this layer is variable, but tests indicate it is skier triggerable. It consists of surface hoar which is largest in sheltered areas between 1500 and 1700m, and a crust with facets or surface hoar which on steep S'ly slopes.
Avalanche Summary
There have been no new avalanches observed since Jan 10th. Avalanche control on Wednesday triggered numerous avalanches, mainly size 2-2.5. These avalanches primarily involved storm snow. Skiers have reported whumphing on steep south aspects where the sun crust is buried. On steep slopes, expect sluffing in the surface snow.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.