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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 29th, 2016–Dec 30th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Moderate to heavy snowfall expected today and tonight!  Limit your overhead exposure to avalanche terrain & be mindful of groups below you.

Weather Forecast

Today a trough of low pressure will bring 15-25cms of snow and 20kph SW winds at ridgetop to Roger's Pass.  Friday a ridge of high pressure will set up bringing drier conditions. Another pulse of moisture could bring 5cm of new snow Saturday before the arctic high pressure settles in and we experience dry, cold conditions through next week.

Snowpack Summary

Within the last 24hrs we have received ~30cm of new snow and strong S winds that are building a reactive wind slab in the Alpine and a new storm slab at treeline and below. In recent profiles numerous failures were observed, possibly on surface hoar in the top 70 cms and this storm snow is settling into a stiffer slab.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday skiers reported triggerable windslabs on a SW aspect at 2100m on McGill, and there were several size 2 and a size 3 natural avalanche from steep paths east of Rogers Pass. On Monday, a size 2 skier-triggered avalanche from steep, shallow, unsupported terrain carried a person over a large cliff and resulted in a rescue.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.