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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 17th, 2018–Dec 18th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

The latest weather models indicate this region will see less snow than areas further south. If overnight amounts exceed 20 cm and there is wind, bump the danger rating up to high.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: 10 cm in the south of the region, trace amounts in the north. Strong southwesterly winds.TUESDAY: Around 5 cm new snow. Freezing level around 1300 m. Strong southwesterly winds.WEDNESDAY: Around 5 cm new snow. Freezing level around 1200 m. Moderate westerly winds.THURSDAY: Around 5 cm new snow, increasing through the day. Freezing level around 500 m. Moderate southeasterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

There were reports of natural and human triggered avalanches to size 2.5 and explosives triggered avalanches to size 3 on Saturday.A notable human triggered size 2.5 avalanche was reported in Allan Creek on Saturday. The avalanche was triggered on a northeast facing slope in the alpine. A report of this avalanche can be found on the Mountain Information Network. (here)Numerous natural and explosives triggered avalanches to size 3, and human triggered avalanches to size 2.5 were reported everyday in the region from Wednesday December 12 to Saturday December 15. Many of these have been remote triggered (triggered from a distance). Natural avalanche activity appears to have subsided, but human-triggered avalanches remain likely.A size 4 natural avalanche was reported to have run full path, burying a road on the west side of Kinbasket Lake. This avalanche occurred in the North Columbia region, but it is a significant event and is very close to the boundary between the North Columbia and Cariboo regions. These full path avalanches can catch people by surprise, especially when there is little to no snow in the valley bottoms. A report of this avalanche can be found on the MIN here

Snowpack Summary

60-120 cm of recent storm snow sits on a weak layer that consists of facets (sugary snow), surface hoar (feathery crystals), and a sun crust (on south aspects). Strong winds have promoted widespread slab formation.A weak layer from mid November is now buried up to 150 cm and consists of surface hoar in shady locations, and a sun crust on steep south facing slopes. The potential may exist for smaller avalanches to step down and trigger this deeper layer, resulting in very large avalanches. The most likely place for this layer to be a problem is on steep, south facing slopes at treeline where the surface hoar sits on the sun crust.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed in late October. The probability of triggering this layer is low, but the most suspect areas would be large, steep, rocky alpine features with a shallow snowpack. It would likely take a large trigger such as a cornice fall to produce an avalanche on this layer.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.