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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 4th, 2015–Dec 5th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Deteriorating conditions along with increasingly dangerous avalanche conditions are forecast by Saturday afternoon. The terrain you started your day with may not be safe on the way out, so choose your travel plan wisely.   

Detailed Forecast

New storm and wind slab near and above treeline will be the focus Saturday. Moderate precipitation throughout the day along with increasing southwest winds should build new slabs on lee NW through E slopes. A warming trend throughout the day will also create unstable storm snow layers. 

Be prepared to curtail your plans if conditions deteriorate faster than expected. Human triggered natural slab avalanches are likely by the afternoon near and above treeline and on lee slopes.  

Early season hazards exist for much of the below treeline band throughout the Northwest, so ski and ride with caution. 

Snowpack Discussion

Manual observations from Hurricane Ridge and automated observations from the Waterhole Snotel show around 18-20" of snow near 5000 feet as of Friday. We have not received any snowpack observations from the Hurricane Ridge area for this season, but given the warmer temperature regime over the Olympics lately, we don't expect any persistent weak layer problems like those seen in the Cascades. Little new snow has been seen in the area this month, so recent storm and wind slab instabilities are expected to be minimal. 

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.