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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 26th, 2015–Mar 27th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

Moist to wet surface snow should gradually refreeze with light new snow accumulations expected by late Friday. Caution in higher elevations where possibly greater new snow may accumulate, especially lee slopes near ridges.  

Detailed Forecast

Increasing clouds with initially very mild temperatures early Friday should gradually turn to light rain and snow by midday with gradually lowering freezing levels. A frontal passage Friday night should cause some new snow, but only light amounts are expected. 

Strong melt freeze surface snow should gradually cool with some isolated wind or storm slabs developing by late Friday at higher elevations. 

Most areas near and below treeline in the Olympics do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.

Snowpack Discussion

The 16-18 inches of storm snow that fell March 14th-15th has all but melted at Hurricane Ridge. The total snow depth at the NWAC weather station settled or melted and lost 10 inches last week, retreating to about the same as before the mid-March storm cycle.

Just a few inches of new snow accumulated last weekend. Winds may have built some small cornices along ridges and built some small wind slabs on lee slopes. The 3 or so inches of snow that accumulated at Hurricane Ridge, Tuesday night has been washed away by light rain and warm winds Wednesday, and the sunshine and very mild temperatures Thursday. 

Overall the snowpack remains meager at Hurricane. There is probably only enough recent snow for avalanches above treeline on the higher peaks of the Olympics.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.