If the storm arrives early, and there is more than 20cm by the afternoon, the DANGER ratings should be considered too low.
Confidence
Fair - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday
Weather Forecast
Tuesday: Expect flurries to build through the day, with more intensity in the southern part of the region. As much as 25cm are possible through the day. Expect moderate to strong southwest winds and alpine temperatures reaching -6.Wednesday: The storm continues with another 20cm possible. Strong southerly winds persists with temperatures reaching -8.Thursday: Snowfall should taper through the day, with winds turning more northerly and abating somewhat. Alpine temperatures should reach -6.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches. This will change as the upcoming storm intensifies.
Snowpack Summary
Currently (February 5th a.m.) isolated, stubborn wind slabs can be found behind ridges, ribs and on lee slopes (NW-NE). Sun crusts can be found on South and West facing terrain. The upper snowpack is showing continued settlement and gaining strength. Down 20-50 cm sits a persistent interface comprising of crusts, facets and surface hoar crystals. Recently, this layer has been reactive in very isolated, sheltered areas at treeline and below where surface hoar remains preserved. The mid pack is generally well settled with the average snowpack depth at treeline around 180 cm.As the storm arrives and develops, expect new windslabs to build on lee features and storm slabs will become reactive, first on south and west facing terrain where the suncrust is well developed.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.