Incoming snow, wind, and warming temperatures will increase avalanche hazard over the next several days.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Weather Forecast
THURSDAY: Continued snow with another 20 to 30 cm by evening, or more for the North Shore, accompanied by moderate to strong SW winds. Temperatures slightly warmer with freezing level peaking around 1000 m.FRIDAY: Still snowing with another 15 to 25 cm by Friday evening with continued strong SW winds. Temperatures cooling slightly with freezing level falling to 700 m.SATURDAY: Even more snow with another 10-15cm expected by the afternoon. Freezing levels hovering around 700 m and winds easing to light southerlies.
Avalanche Summary
Only small sluffing reported. With an incoming storm forecast the potential for slab avalanches (wind slab and storm slabs) will increase.
Snowpack Summary
Another 10-25cm of fresh snow adds to the 15-20 cm of recent snow, sitting on a mix of sun crust on southerly aspects and surface hoar on shaded aspects with bonds beginning to strengthen. However, southwesterly winds have likely deposited deep and touchy wind slabs in exposed terrain. The widespread 20 cm thick mid-February rain crust, is now down around 50-60 cm at higher elevations. Below the crust, the snowpack is well settled and strong.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.