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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 20th, 2014–Jan 21st, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: The proud upper ridge remains in place. Get used to it as its not going to make its exodus anytime soon.Tuesday: Freezing Level: 2700m; Precip: Nil; Wind: Light, SWWednesday: Freezing Level: 1300m; Precip: Trace; Wind: Mod, NWThursday: Freezing Level: 2500m; Precip: Nil; Wind: Light, NE

Avalanche Summary

A couple of loose natural avalanches released naturally from extreme SW facing terrain Sunday. No other significant activity to report from the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures have left the snow surface in rough shape. A crust can be found on steep solar aspects to ridge top and on all aspects below 1600m. The crust may moisten when the air is still and the skies are clear.  Previous winds have scoured windward slopes and sculpted sastrugi in exposed areas. Initially, the bond below the most recent storm snow was weak. However, settlement due to the warm temperatures appears to have settled the upper snowpack and it has appeared to have gained strength.There are two lower layers of note near the base of the snowpack. A facet/crust combo from late November (down approximately 100-120 cm) is still giving "sudden" results in compression tests and exists at treeline and alpine elevations. Facets and depth hoar likely still exist at the base of the snowpack, especially in areas where the snowpack was particularly shallow early on in the season. The most likely places you would find this problem is in the alpine in shallow rocky areas, and it has been most widely reported from the Duffey Lake and Chilcotin areas.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.