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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 18th, 2017–Jan 19th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Warm wet weather continues. Where it rains, watch out for loose wet snow (or wet slabs in the alpine); where it snows, watch out for storm slabs.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: A mix of snow and rain (20mm water equivalent). Winds light gusting to moderate from the southwest. Freezing level around 1300m and alpine temperatures to +2 Celsius.FRIDAY: Unsettled weather with occasional rain or snow (5mm water equivalent). Winds light - moderate from the east. Freezing level 1500m and alpine high temperatures to +4 Celsius.SATURDAY: Continued unsettled weather with occasional rain or snow (5mm water equivalent). Winds light - moderate from the east. Freezing level 1500m and alpine high temperatures to +4 Celsius. More details can be found on the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports have been limited by the inclement weather, but include evidence of natural wet loose avalanche activity up to Size 1.5.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain is saturating the snowpack up to alpine elevations. Crusts on and just below the snow surface have kept the snowpack quite stable and will continue to do so once the temperatures drop below freezing again. Higher up in the alpine, old wind slabs from last week could remain reactive on steeper unsupported terrain, especially if loaded by new snow or saturated by rain. The mid and lower snowpack are well settled and stable.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.