Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

A new storm system arrives from early on the 7th of August with Moderate to Gale Northerly winds.

New windslabs will be forming on a variety of surfaces

Hazard is Considerable on the Main Divide - Moderate elsewhere.

voided.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Expect windslab to be forming lee to the Northerly 1/2 as winds from Moderate to gale redistribute the forecast snow.Caution on steep ridgeline entries, convex rolls and cross loaded features if you find stiff wind pressed snow.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Loose wet avalanches may be possible to low elevations close to the main divide if precipitation exceeds forecast amounts. Be aware of what is above you if you are out in the storm as the rain increases and you are traveling through avalanche pathways.

Recent Avalanche Activity

6/8 Some LW avalanches to size 1 were noted running in very steep solar terrain

5/8 Several Natural windslabs up to size 2 were reported around the Tasman Neve on North West and South East aspects. We expect that these occurred sometime on the 4th during or just after the wind event.

Current Snowpack Conditions

A new storm will arrive over 7th and 8th August. The current snowpack conditions will change and will need re-investigation.

As of the 6th of August Highly variable snow surface conditions exist across the park. Recent gale winds have stripped exposed ridge lines and pressed exposed slopes. On solar aspects a Melt stout freeze crust exists with evidence of near surface faceting developing beneath. This faceting is also evident where windslab is thin. On the 6th August this Melt freeze crust began to break down and corn. On slopes directly lee to the recent Gale North West, South and South East winds significant windslab has formed which is stubborn to triggering.

The lower pack is generally well settled.

Mountain Weather

Occasional rain developing in the morning, with snow above 1300 metres.

Wind at 1000 metres

Light, rising to northeasterly 55 km/h for a time in the morning and afternoon.

Wind at 2000 metres

Northerly 40 km/h, rising to gale 65 km/h for a time in the morning and afternoon.

Wind at 3000 metres

Northerly 35 km/h, rising to gale 70 km/h for a time in the morning and afternoon.

Freezing level

1600 metres.

Sliding Danger

Ridgelines and exposed areas will be been scoured back to slick crusts or rock in places. Crampons and an ice axe are a good idea for general travel at this time

Forecast Confidence

Low

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.
  • We are uncertain due to the timing of the incoming weather system.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered