Avalanche forecast

Nelson Lakes

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
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Highlights

Loose wet avalanche danger will increase on sunny aspects on Tuesday due to solar radiation and an increase in freezing level. Storm slab danger should now be isolated to very steep and shady aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5

    Expect loose wet avalanches on north-facing aspects with forecast clear skies and a rising freezing level. Use extra caution, as even a small ride may end in rocky terrain.

  • Storm Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5

    The recent storm created storm slab danger. This danger has significantly decreased due to the significant rise in freezing levels. Storm slab should be isolated to shady and steep aspects where sufficient new snow exists if at all.

Recent Avalanche Activity

No observations, but suspect some roller balling and loose wet avalanche on sunny aspects. Please submit public observations to the link below.

https://www.avalanche.net.nz/observations

Current Snowpack Conditions

Reasonably consistent snow cover exists above 1800 meters, particularly on the western side of the park. Below 2000 meters, the new snow may overlie a hard rain crust. Below 1700 meters, the snowpack is mostly below threshold (not enough snow to trigger an avalanche). The more moderate air temperatures should have reduced the storm slab danger. The new snow will be sensitive to the forecast solar radiation and the rising freezing level.

Mountain Weather

Fine. Moderate southerlies easing during the day. Freezing level rising from 1600m to 2100m during the day.

Sliding Danger

The main tramping passes are now snow covered. Sliding into rock is a potential hazard. Ice axe and crampons should be part of your winter gear.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain about how the timing or intensity of solar radiation will affect the snowpack.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered