Avalanche forecast

Craigieburn Range

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

New storm upon us for the next 24-48hrs. Plenty of wind forecast until late Saturday.

Backcountry travel becomes difficult in Gale force winds.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    With the wind increasing to gale from the Northwest, expect Wind Slabs to now begin to form on steep East/Southeast aspects. Once the Northwest wind changes to South/Southwest then these slabs will swing around the compass to the Northern1/2 aspects. With a lot of snow available to transport, these slabs will potentially form quickly and could grow quite large. With such strong winds, much of this snow will sublimate (evaporate) or form Slabs much lower down slope from the ridge. Watch for dense pockets of wind blown snow if in terrain above 30degrees, above 1600m.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Rain on snow increases the likelihood of Loose Wet avalanches occurring. The freezing level is expected to drop significantly tomorrow which will quickly reduce the hazard for Loose Wet. Roller-balling is the first sign that the surface is warming up.

  • Wet Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5

    Sudden onset of heavy rain on the current snowpack could trigger Wet Slabs especially on steep slopes with multiple layers of snow. These are difficult to predict so avoid steep terrain if the rain becomes heavy. Watch for steep slopes above too. Once the freezing level drops this hazard will cease to exist.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Small Snowboarder controlled Wind Slab reported at Porters. SE aspect, 1600m, 29/07

Small Loose Wet reported at Mt Olympus, WSW Aspect, 1800m, 30/07

Current Snowpack Conditions

Coverage is patchy with significant pockets of wind deposited snow all the way through to very thin patches. Upwards of 30cm fell with strong Southwest winds overnight on the 24/07. During the down pour the freezing level dropped to around 1500m leaving cold, dry snow above 1600m and wet snow below this level. A further 10cm fell with light southwest winds 25/07. Possible buried Surface Hoar was recently found within the latest storm snow. Gale Northwest winds are hammering the snowpack at the moment. Fortunately the freezing level did not climb above 1900m.

Mountain Weather

Friday: Periods of rain, heavy at times about the Divide until evening. Snow to 800m, lowering to 400m in the afternoon. Northwesterly severe gale, turning Southwesterly gale in the afternoon. Freezing level 1400m lowering to 800m by evening.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers clearing to fine in the morning. Strong Southerly wind easing and turning Southwest in the afternoon. Freezing level 500m rising to 900m in the afternoon.

Sliding Danger

Ice axe and Crampons are recommended if venturing out. There are still some hard icy patches especially along ridgelines.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered