Avalanche forecast

Nelson Lakes

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
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Highlights

Up to 40cm of new snow accompanied by strong winds is expected in the next 24 hours. The avalanche hazard will rise through Friday as snow accumulates as low as 1400 meters. If the forecast is correct, the avalanche hazard will rise to considerable.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Rapid snow loading accompanied by moderate to strong winds will result in storm slab avalances toward Friday afternoon when the bulk of the snow arrives.

  • Loose Dry

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5

    Expect loose dry avalanches to run far on the previous ice crusts.

Recent Avalanche Activity

A previous loose, wet avalanche cycle has occurred throughout the region.

Current Snowpack Conditions

A dusting of new snow overlies a well-settled snowpack above 2100 meters . Below 2100 meters, a hard rain crust is the dominant layer in the snowpack. Below 1700 meters, the snowpack is below threshold (not enough snow to avalanche).

Mountain Weather

Periods of rain, sometimes heavy. Snow lowering to 1600 metres.

Wind at 1000 metres

Northwesterly 50 km/h, easing to 30 km/h in the afternoon.

Wind at 2000 metres

Northwesterly gale 80 km/h, easing to 60 km/h in the afternoon.

Freezing level

1800 metres, lowering to 1400 metres in the evening.

Sliding Danger

Snow remains on most of the main passes and tramping routes. Sliding into rock is a potential hazard. Ice axe and crampons should be part of your winter gear.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered